BY THE end of January 2007 a total of 17 Republicans and Democrats had already lined up to signal their White House aspirations. They included one Senator Barack Obama, but no incumbent candidate, term limits ruling out a George Bush third term. This week, as President Obama launches his 20-month re-election campaign the field for 2012 is still sparse – only one serious rival has yet declared himself formally, Republican ex- governor of Minnesota Tim Pawlenty.
Although he is unlikely to face a serious Democratic challenge, and so should not need to invest hugely in the primaries, Obama is playing the long game by starting well ahead of the opposition in a race that may still cost more than $1 billion. He raised a record $745 million in 2007 and 2008, and this time will have to do better. A filing with the Federal Election Commission and establishment of a campaign HQ in Chicago will allow him to start fundraising and the rebuilding of the vast grass roots, internet-based organisation that won him 2008.
At roughly 50 per cent in the polls Obama is already ahead of the field, but his task is no mean one. Last time he won on the basis of a huge turnout by minorities and under-30s, and a solid performance among the minority of white voters who backed his coalition. Polls show it will be more difficult to get minorities out to vote while independent voters have deserted him in their droves.
Obama in office has disappointed many of his early followers. His mantra of change has given way to explaining the harsh choices of governing. Since the mid-term loss of congressional majorities he has tacked decisively to the centre to cut deals with Republicans on key issues like allowing tax cuts for top earners to stay in place, while setting aside earlier initiatives on more divisive issues like immigration reform and climate change legislation. This may help to rally the centrist middle ground but not the liberal base.
In an e-mail to supporters, Obama said his campaign would be an effort “to protect the progress we’ve made – and make more”, not the catchiest or most inspiring of slogans. But the president can point to progress on healthcare that has long bedevilled presidents of both parties, some upturn in the economy, Wall Street reform, and success in winding down the Iraq war.
Obama’s best hope, however, lies in the weakness of his opposition. The Republican nomination contest remains wide open, deeply dreary, and unelectably right wing, with potential candidates ranging from property developer Donald Trump to Pawlenty, to former governors of Arkansas, Mike Huckabee, of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney, and of Alaska, Sarah Palin. Governors Mitch Daniels of Indiana and Haley Barbour of Mississippi have expressed interest, while the congressional darling of the Tea Party, Representative Michele Bachmann (Minnesota) has hinted she may join the race. It all makes for a highly divisive primary race with the party’s reactionary rank and file calling the shots. Not surprisingly Obama aides say he is unlikely even to mention the name of a rival for months. The principle is as old as politics: let them destroy themselves.