THE SHEER pace and scale of economic events have determined so much of President Barack Obama’s first two months in office that it is difficult as yet to form an overall opinion of his substantive record in office. It is too early to make any definitive judgment. His administration’s political focus on making a maximum impact from the outset is unwavering, as is the determination to frame his policies for voters through intensive political communication. Having genuinely tried to create a bipartisan consensus in Congress, which was rebuffed by the Republicans, he is successfully concentrating on shoring up citizen support.
These qualities have been highly visible as he launched his $3.6 trillion budget this week, alongside yesterday’s plans to rein in Wall Street financial regulation, and the continuing efforts to refinance the banking system, stimulate the US economy, and urge the same strategy on other world leaders ahead of the Group of 20 summit in London next week. This is a huge political task. Mr Obama has adroitly underlined how many of the problems are inherited from the Bush administration rather than created on his watch, but without ducking his own responsibility for policy. Despite several “screw-ups” and some genuine ill-luck in failing to get senior appointments through much tighter congressional scrutiny procedures, he is managing these first months in office very well.
His urge to communicate is calculated and tempered by an instinct to control the message, as seen in his reliance on tele-prompters. Efforts to appear more spontaneous, whether on television talk shows or in live and online press conferences, could rebound if they seem over-manipulative and not linked to effective policy outcomes. So far, however, the net increase in accessibility and therefore accountability is welcome and popular compared to the hermetic secrecy and executive authoritarianism of the Bush administration. Mr Obama’s efforts to harness his supporters by keeping alive the networks he used to get elected are broadening democratic life in the US.
Despite his clear-cut electoral mandate and the Democrats’ congressional majority, Mr Obama has to bargain hard to get his programme approved. Already he is encountering opposition to his budget plans on healthcare, education and clean energy, not only from Republicans but from fiscally conservative Democrats increasingly worried about the spiralling deficit. Mr Obama assures them a balanced budget will be restored by 2013, but he has his work cut out to convince them. The overall economic crisis can therefore endanger his core reforming agenda. It will be another year before this becomes clear.
More classical foreign policy issues have been overshadowed by the economic crisis, but are nonetheless active and growing in importance. Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran and Iraq make up a complex agenda, the immediacy and urgency of which may overshadow the administration’s commitment to broker an IsraeliPalestinian peace. And the unexpected will intrude.