The threat this week by Iran to resume nuclear enrichment and the announcement by North Korea that it has finished unloading 8,000 spent fuel rods from its main nuclear reactor have focused attention on the dangers involved if both states press ahead with plans that could lead them to acquire nuclear weapons.
This comes as the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty review conference meets amid pessimism that it can be brought up to date to police the availability of such weapons effectively.
Stark policy choices are presented in both cases to the multilateral groups which have been negotiating with Iran and North Korea. Yesterday the European Union states dealing with Iran warned its government they will report it to the United Nations Security Council if enrichment proceeds. That would qualitatively change the tempo of this crisis, since the Security Council would then be obliged to consider sanctions. The United States has gone along with the EU effort to find a negotiated solution, at first reluctantly and more recently with greater engagement. But the Bush administration has refused to deal directly with Iran, largely because it is divided on the best course of action between a hawkish wing unwilling to trust Iran at all and a realist one which sees a possible agreement. The Iranians may now try one more time to strike a deal; but it will remain a hostage to US intentions if any agreement is to be credible.
North Korea is also fishing for an agreement which would give it aid and technology transfers in return for relinquishing its nuclear weapons programme, according to experienced onlookers. But it does have such a capacity, including the means to deliver such weapons. This, combined with an impulsive and unstable leadership, makes it a most unreliable negotiating partner for the group directly involved in talks - China, the US, South Korea, Russia and Japan. The Bush administration has refused to deal directly with the regime; but it faces a choice between reactivating the negotiating group and escalating pressure by referring this issue to the Security Council as well.
Hardline critics of the administration say its room for unilateral manoeuvre has been too compromised by these multilateral initiatives and that Washington must exert military pressure on Iran and North Korea. But the US is over-extended in Iraq and incapable of taking on two extra crises without the support of its allies.
Political decisions are required urgently on whether to reactivate the multilateral approaches to Iran and North Korea. That remains the better way to deal with both of these states.