IOWA AND New Hampshire both reflect very different aspects of the American psyche, and both, as it happens, were 2008 “blue” states which voted to elect Barack Obama. Now both have also endorsed Mitt Romney for the Republican nomination, the latter on Wednesday by a handsome majority.
The Republican circus now moves on to the South, to South Carolina, first of the “red” states, a primary on January 21st dominated by socially conservative evangelical voters, many deeply suspicious of Mormon Romney. If he wins here – polls show him with a10-point lead on both former House of Representatives speaker Newt Gingrich and former senator Rick Santorum – pundits would have us believe the nomination to face President Obama in November will be in the bag. This state, after all, since 1980 has every time successfuly put its money on the eventual winner in Republican primaries.
It won’t be straightforward – South Carolina is traditionally a vicious contest. And, while the former governor of Massachussetts has a war chest of $2.3 million to spend on ads in the next 10 days, the super-Pac fundraising committee working for Gingrich, a son of neighbouring Georgia, is throwing $3.4 million at it. But Romney’s momentum out of New Hampshire will play well, not least with the groups who there gave him strongest support, those who see the economy as the crucial issue – unemployment in South Carolina is running at 9.9 per cent – and the third of Republicans who say that the key issue is finding someone who can beat Obama.
And the sense that Romney’s nomination may already be unassailable has produced the beginnings of a party realignment, a rallying behind him of influential, sometimes surprising voices. Not least over the running theme in New Hampshire where his opponents ramped up the anti-big business rhetoric, Gingrich accusing venture capitalist Romney of “looting companies”, while Texas Governor Rick Perry called him a “vulture”. Gingrich’s campaign remains adamant the themes will be key to his appeal to South Carolina’s blue collar vote.
Fearful that Romney will be damaged goods before he ever gets to take on Obama, and that anti-capitalism is un-Republican, radio host Rush Limbaugh and Meg Whitman, the former eBay chief who ran unsuccessfully for California governor last year, have warned that the attacks could undermine the partys free-market ideals. Their unease perfectly reflects its excruciating dilemma of needing to face two ways at once to nominate a candidate and then have any hope against Obama.