I cannot think offhand of any other country with a recent political history quite like ours. In the past 24 years every one of nine successive elections has changed the shape of the government. In all, there have been 11 new governments in this period, and nine government leadership changes.
Yet this same period has witnessed an unusually consistent pursuit of key economic policies by these constantly-changing governments, a pursuit which in the last half-dozen years has contributed to unprecedented economic growth.
A final oddity is that the political system which has produced an economic growth rate three times higher than elsewhere in Europe seems to be regarded with little respect by the electorate.
During the past 18 years our political situation has been complicated by the arrival in the Dail of representatives of five new parties , Official Sinn Fein (later transmuted into the now-defunct Democratic Left); the Progressive Democrats; the Greens; and, in the last election, Provisional Sinn Fein; and the Socialist Party in the form of Joe Higgins.
Even after the disappearance of Democratic Left, TDs from these groups and Independents still hold 14 seats, although four of these belong to the Progressive Democrats. ail. Thus, thus leaving This leaves both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael/Labour short of an overall majority by six and nine seats respectively. With around a dozen seats, these smaller parties and Independents are likely to continue to hold the balance of power. ail.
Forming a majority government may therefore prove just as difficult next time as in 1997. Indeed, without major shifts in party voting it could prove even more difficult next time for, although few now seem to remember this, Fianna Fail returned to government 2 1/2 years ago only because it won a number of seats totally disproportionate to its share of the vote.
In part, this reflected skilful vote management, a term employed by politicians to describe the process of maximising the number of seats won by persuading supporters in a constituency to spread their votes evenly among two or three party candidates instead of plumping for the most popular.
Fine Gael owed its return to government in November 1982 to its success with such a tactic in three or four constituencies, but it was not until 1997 that Fianna Fail persuaded its candidates to co-operate in such a process. Good luck also contributed to Fianna Fail's big seat bonus in 1997, and it cannot reasonably expect to achieve a repeat performance on the same scale. In the next election Fianna Fail, as the party of government, will be defending its gains rather than attacking after a period in opposition. In those conditions it is always more difficult to organise seat management, and the party's seat bonus could suffer accordingly. If, improbably, it moved back towards its typical two-point seat bonus of the previous half-dozen general elections, to hold on to its present number of seats it would need to increase its share of the vote by nine points to 48 per cent to secure an overall majority. Nothing like that seems on the cards today. Such indications of public opinion as we possess suggest Fianna Fail would be lucky to retain 39 per cent of the vote next time. In its report on its recent public opinion poll, MRBI endeavoured to make allowance for the traditional tendency of polls to exaggerate Fianna Fail's support as the political "brand leader" and to allow insufficiently for what seems to have become a higher abstention rate among Fianna Fail supporters.
Its conclusion is that if an election had been held last week Fianna Fail would have been likely to obtain fractionally fewer votes than Fine Gael/Labour.
If, in that situation, Fianna Fail lost some of its exceptional seat bonus and also, as now seems possible, lost a couple of seats to Sinn Fein, then, even if not further damaged by the tribunals, it could come back with 70 or fewer seats.
If an overall majority is ruled out for any single party, are there any combinations of parties that might yield such a majority next time?
Given Fianna Fail's current weak position and the possibility that the retirement of two Progressive Democrats TDs might reduce that party's Dail numbers, it seems unlikely that the next election could yield a minority FF/PD coalition, never mind one with an overall majority.
Even if the PDs were to hold their four seats, it is far from certain that they would wish to serve in government again with Fianna Fail. For, even with Bertie Ahern as Taoiseach rather than Charles Haughey, theirs has been an uncomfortable ride, as it was between 1989 and 1992.
What about a rerun of the Fianna Fail/Labour combination? Fianna Fail would probably need to increase its vote from 39 per cent to over 45 per cent, and as things stand such a jump seems improbable.
This is certainly a theoretical possibility. Between them these two parties commanded almost 50 per cent of the votes in the last general election, and if Fianna Fail were to lose seats next time, some of these losses would be likely to accrue to Labour, with some chance that this would leave the two parties jointly enjoying enough support to be able to provide a majority government.
But would Labour want to repeat its experience of 1992-1994? Clearly a good deal could depend on the condition in which Fianna Fail emerges from its present period in office. But even if Fianna Fail were not further damaged by the tribunals Labour might hesitate to repeat that experiment.
That temporary alliance with Fianna Fail seems to have damaged Labour in the eyes of many of its supporters; indeed, rightly or wrongly, that brief coalition is thought to have contributed to the virtual halving of Labour's vote in 1997.
What, then, about the old reliable, the Fine Gael/Labour combination which, with or without other partners, has provided us with no fewer than six coalitions and has governed for a total of 18 years out of the past 51?
In the last election Fine Gael, Labour and Democratic Left collected 41 per cent of the votes among them, two percentage points more than Fianna Fail. With better seat management next time, Fine Gael might increase its seat bonus above 3 per cent.
The swing needed to give Fine Gael/Labour an overall majority would, however, be about six percentage points. Given the tendency of the electorate to change governments, such a swing is clearly more likely than the swing that would be needed by Fianna Fail to secure such a majority.
However, since 1981 a swing of this magnitude to Fine Gael/Labour has occurred on only one occasion, 1992, although in 1989 that combination secured a swing of just over five percentage points.
That could raise the question of whether, with around 10 or perhaps even more Independents, Greens, Socialists and Sinn Feiners likely to be occupying Dail seats next time, a three-party coalition involving the Progressive Democrats as well as Fine Gael and Labour might not offer the best chance for the formation of a majority government.
Such a combination has hitherto been excluded for ideological reasons. But recent policy adjustments by the parties, and in particular by the Progressive Democrats, may have resolved this potential difficulty.
So, if the post-electoral arithmetic were to offer these three parties a prospect of forming a three-party coalition with an overall majority, there may not now be any compelling reason why they could not agree on a common approach to our social, economic and cultural problems.
If I had to bet on the government to be formed after the next election, a three-party anti-Fianna Fail coalition is the one I should be most inclined to put my money on, although, as a place bet, I might chance a flutter at somewhat higher odds on a Fine Gael/Labour administration.
At the same time I would also rate fairly highly Fianna Fail's chances of being able in the future to form occasional single-party governments. If it used a few years in opposition to drop front-benchers who were formerly too close to Charles Haughey and if it drew on the new talent it has attracted in recent years, such a possibility could not be excluded from the second-next election onwards.