NO LOSER and no knockout blow, but Joe Biden probably shaded it over Sarah Palin. Such is the commonly agreed verdict on Thursday night's vice-presidential television debate between the Democratic and Republican candidates. In that case the encounter has not altered the dynamics of the presidential race established in the last two weeks which have given Barack Obama a growing lead over John McCain.
The financial credit crisis is central to this potentially decisive shift in the campaign, with 32 days to go before voting on November 4th. Increasingly, therefore, it looks like this is Mr Obama's election to lose - unless last night's decisive and welcome bipartisan House of Representatives vote in favour of the rescue package neutralises the issue, allowing Mr McCain to reverse the trend. Mr Obama has pulled ahead on all the major indicators and most of the battleground states because he seems the more credible and capable person to deal with the deteriorating economy. His message that Mr McCain will continue the Bush administration's policies and approach, systematically repeated by Mr Biden in this debate, has proved compelling with key sections of voters. They want to see a complete change - so much so that Mr McCain and Mrs Palin have put as much distance as they can between themselves and Mr Bush to allow them tap this trend as well.
The vice-presidential debate was Mrs Palin's to lose if she failed to reverse the bad impression given in two interviews which revealed her incompetent command of major issues. She managed to do that effectively by careful preparation and a bright, popular presentation. Mr Biden was equally well prepared and disciplined, however, avoiding provocation and steering the discussion systematically back to the Bush-McCain policy nexus. He too is well able to appeal to ordinary Americans on their everyday concerns. One important shift in attitudes has seen women voters swing back to the Obama-Biden ticket after an initial attraction to Mrs Palin. More exposure to her conservatism and political capacity explained that shift. There is precious little time now to reverse it, but she has at least stopped the trend.
Another great uncertainty about this campaign is whether white voters will in fact support Mr Obama in the privacy of the voting booths to the extent polls say they will. Mr Obama may need a substantial buffer to protect him from this - and especially among younger voters. He can use the financial crisis and its widening economic effects to good advantage in the last period of the campaign, but he has still to establish a commanding lead and appeal to ensure victory. Nevertheless he is very well placed at this stage to ensure that, both on economic and foreign policy issues. A significant indicator is Mr McCain's decision to pull out of the campaign in Michigan, a Democratic stronghold he needs to win to be successful.
This has become one of the most exciting US presidential campaigns. Its huge following around the world acknowledges how consequential the outcome will be.
