Who would want to be president of Nigeria? The economy is in worse shape then at any time since independence. Its armed forces are marooned in a conflict in Sierra Leone which they cannot win, cannot afford and cannot get out of. Oil prices are at a 12-year low and corruption exists in size and in spread which, even by African standards, breaks all known records.
But the laws of logic rarely apply in politics. Two candidates are shaping up for the presidential election and, judging by the weekend assembly elections, the result could be close. By last night the returns indicated that the People's Democratic Party (PDP) had scored a narrow victory over the coalition of the All People's Party (APP) and the Alliance of Democracy (AD). Also in yesterday were complaints from the Transition Monitoring Group. It has not received explanations (satisfactory or otherwise) for the fact that abnormally high numbers of votes have been counted for regions where the turnout was very low.
The imperfections will not take away from the enthusiasm for the presidential election this coming Saturday, for that offers the only prize which really matters. There is no constitutional provision for a president and so there will be nothing to deter the winner from making the president's powers what the winner wants them to be. Nigerians elect a president to be simply the ruler and many are not particularly surprised or dismayed if the ruler quickly loses interest in concepts such as separation of powers or independence of the judiciary. What is vital, of course, is that the ruler plays fair.
The candidates for the presidency are Mr Olusegun Obansanjo, representing the PDP party, which was victorious in the assembly elections and Mr Olu Falae who represents the coalition which came a close second. Mr Falae is a former Finance Minister and electable but the coalition he represents is far from united. Mr Obansanjo is also a creditable candidate. A former general, he ruled unelected from 1976 to 1979 but then handed power over to an elected president - something which no other Nigerian military ruler has ever contemplated. Mr Obansanjo would be forgiven for having regretted his magnanimity. The military soon seized power once more and General Sani Abacha threw him into gaol on a trumped-up charge.
Whoever takes over from the interim ruler, Mr Abdulsalami Abubaker, following the election will be a huge improvement on Mr Abacha whose incompetence and corruption were without limit. Fortunately for the people of Nigeria, Mr Abacha passed away nine months ago. But the winner will need much assistance from the international community to make a once great country great again. Nigeria has played an invaluable role in facing up to armed conflict outside its borders. It is Africa's most populous nation and its new leader will be deserving of generous international support, especially in finance - if he can deliver the elimination of corruption. In the past 25 years nearly $300 billion in oil revenues have poured into Nigeria. And poured out somewhere else, it would seem. The vast majority of Nigerians endure much greater hardship now than ever before.