The United Kingdom goes to the polls tomorrow in one of its most important general elections this century. The tasks confronting its new government in domestic and international affairs are daunting. Decisions taken to address them will affect Britain's position in Europe and its national identity for a generation to come. In these circumstances it is essential that whichever government is formed should have a solid majority, a convincing mandate, and a capacity to deal with negotiations on Northern Ireland and Europe without party divisions continually intruding. On these criteria Ireland's interests would be best served by the election of a Labour government with an unassailable majority in the House of Commons.
This seems by common consent and expectation to be the most likely outcome tomorrow. It would open up real opportunities for progress in Anglo Irish relations that has been blocked by Mr Major's vulnerability to parliamentary ambush. It would also reopen the way for Britain to find a new role in Europe, using its influence to assert its interests, rather than, as happened under the Conservative government, becoming more and more isolated from its fellow EU member states and increasingly making a patriotic virtue out this necessity.
A new government faces difficult decisions at the Amsterdam summit on EU institutions in six weeks' time and above all on how Britain will relate to the economic and monetary union. What it decides to do on the single currency will have grave implications for Ireland, given that Britain remains our largest trading partner. A Labour administration seems likely to adopt a policy stance more in keeping with Ireland's interests and determination to be among the first wave of states to join on January 1st, 1999.
Mr Tony Blair has committed himself to giving as high a priority to Northern Ireland as Mr Major has done. It is a welcome statement of intent and one to which he would need to pay close and continuing attention, if elected. A defeated Conservative Party would probably go through a wounding leadership battle revolving around the issue of sovereignty in relation to Europe, within the UK itself and in relation to Northern Ireland. In opposition it would be highly sensitive to such matters, so much so that it would be difficult for a Labour government to maintain bipartisanship on Northern Ireland. Unless, therefore, the leadership of a Labour government were to remain highly sensitive to the coherence of its policies across the span of these sovereignty issues, it would be more vulnerable to ambush and assault on them from a Tory opposition and its press.
Many of the arguments for a Labour victory flow more from dissatisfaction with the Conservatives than from enthusiasm for Mr Blair's New Labour policies. They remain vague and ill defined in many respects and have been put over during the campaign with a caution that could bode ill for decisive leadership in government. But this has been Labour's election to lose, following Mr Blair's ruthless modernisation of his party and his clear pitching for a programme of renewal which goes beyond the 18 year Conservative era, without abandoning many of the changes it brought to British society. His party deserves the opportunity to prove that it is as good as its word.