Mr David Trimble is facing into the most critical 24 hours in the life of any Unionist leader when he will determine, by his words and his actions, not just the immediate fate of the Belfast Agreement but the hopes and aspirations of an overwhelming majority of the people on this island, North and South. He and his Ulster Unionist colleagues will be called upon to decide, on the eve of Mr Tony Blair's "absolute deadline", whether to take another risk for peace or to suspend the formation of the Northern Executive and the process for the voluntary disarmament of the IRA by May 2000.
Though the week of the Twelfth is not the most propitious time to seek concessions from the wider unionist community, the dignity and restraint displayed by the Orange Order this week make the atmosphere more conducive to compromise and the leap of faith required to implement the proposals made in The Way Forward. The absence of any provocation or major disturbances is testament to the changes already wrought on the ground from the peace process.
The UUP leadership has invested heavily in the fail-safe legislation, which sets out the sequence of events to be followed in the event of commitments to devolution or decommissioning not being met. Mr Trimble judged it to be "flawed and unfair" yesterday and sought unsuccessfully to amend it. For its part, the Government is not entirely happy either with the provision allowing for a vote in the Assembly at the post-review meeting.
Mr Trimble and his senior colleagues must have known, however, that because of the enshrinement of the Belfast Agreement in the Constitution of this State, it would not be open to Mr Blair unilaterally to alter its provisions in the House of Commons. They must also have assessed that if Mr Blair or Mr John Hume were to give a prior commitment that Sinn Fein would be expelled from the Executive if there was a default on IRA decommissioning, the balance of The Way For- ward would be undermined at this delicate point.
A substantial body of opinion in both Governments, the American administration and even the UUP believes that a statement from the IRA, confirming what Sinn Fein has signed up to in The Way For- ward, could be more helpful than any legislation to Mr Trimble at the eleventh hour. A great deal of pressure is being put on Sinn Fein to ensure that such a statement will be forthcoming. Mr Gerry Adams throws no light on the prospect for such a development in his article in today's editions.
In the run-up to the deadline for the triggering of the D'Hondt procedure tomorrow, Mr Trimble would do well to weigh the undoubted advances in the peace process against what Mr Blair has described as the alternative of the abyss. He can secure the end of the IRA and the withdrawal of the Republic's territorial claim on Northern Ireland - two long-standing Unionist aims - within a short time-frame if he can convince his party to grasp this historic opportunity. Otherwise, the two Government seem compelled to run D'Hondt and put the whole process into review. The deliberations of the next 24 hours will shape the political landscape of Northern Ireland for some time to come.