Even the most dewy-eyed optimist will recognise that if Senator George Mitchell's current review fails to secure significant forward movement, the Belfast Agreement will be consigned to cold storage. In such event the two governments would explore alternative means of keeping political dialogue alive. Executive functions, at least in the short term, would continue to be discharged directly under the authority of Westminster while some form of activity in the Assembly might be maintained. But it would be a fraught and uncertain voyage into the unknown for virtually all of the participants in the process. Mr David Trimble wisely recognises that the implementation of the Agreement is still the best available option for the future interests of his community.
Under the Agreement, the unionists have the opportunity of participating directly in the management of their own destiny. They would not have that capacity in some form of renewed direct rule or joint authority. Under the Agreement, the nationalist community is offered, for the first time, a share of authority in government. If the Agreement falters, nationalists will have at best a channel of influence, with on-the-ground power in the hands of permanent officials. The irony of the failure to establish the agreed institutions is that both sides are denied what they know, in their hearts, is to everyone's advantage.
Either Sinn Fein or the Ulster Unionists could break the impasse. But each side believes it has gone the extra mile in order to accommodate the other. Each understands that their own hard men are harder now in their respective stances than they were before the summer. And, increasingly, each doubts the other's good faith in wanting to see the Agreement fully implemented. The unionists stand by Mr Trimble's declaration: "no guns, no government". Sinn Fein insists it does not have the capacity to deliver IRA guns. Senator Mitchell is truly being asked to make bricks without straw.
The Belfast Agreement is dying before the very eyes of those to whom it offers most in its guarantees and assurances for the future. Somebody has to reach out to save it, even if it means risking one's own political ambitions. Somebody has to expose themselves to the possibility of political annihilation and the accusation that one has broken the line or sold the pass or surrendered to the enemy. But whoever takes the risk also tries for the prize of greatness. He can be the man of courage, who has leaped past tribal or sectional limitations to reach for a place in history.
Writing yesterday in this newspaper, Mr Trimble said he was willing to consider any new proposals for sequencing the establishment of an executive and the decommissioning of IRA weapons. If Senator Mitchell can be satisfied that a formula can be devised, supported by General John de Chastelain, for the full disarmament of the paramilitaries, it should be possible to build in failsafe guarantees for the unionists in the event that the IRA/Sinn Fein were to break faith and not deliver on their undertakings. In that scenario Mr Trimble would have the opportunity to try for the ultimate prize while placing the republicans' bona fides for testing upon the anvil. Surely he would be better to do so bravely and boldly, rather than to watch the Agreement - and his own political reputation - die the death of a thousand cuts.