With the voters of Barnsley East last night depriving the Conservatives of a Commons majority for the first time in 17 years and the resignation of Mr David Willetts, the Paymaster General, in the latest sleaze scandal, the Major government looks badly wounded and vulnerable as its prepares for next year's general election. There is a strong sense that we are witnessing the "last throes of a dying, dissembling Government", as Labour's deputy leader, Mr John Prescott, observed yesterday.
This week's two day European debate in the Commons only served to underline the extent of Tory division over Europe with the customary grandstanding by both sides of the argument. An apparently innocuous remark by the Chancellor, Mr Kenneth Clarke, that the EU may not meet its timetable for monetary union was seized upon by the Europhile, "Mrs Edwina Currie, as evidence that Mr Major's government is now in thrall to the Eurosceptics. She has threatened not to stand in the next general election if Mr Major yields any further ground to the Eurosceptics.
To compound the problems for Mr Major, this weekend's Dublin summit is fraught with several potential difficulties, notably on monetary union. Mr Major, with the support of his Chancellor is adopting a canny "wait and see" approach towards the single currency. But a substantial summit agreement on the fine print of monetary union could force Mr Major's hand on the issue and oblige him to legislate for the reality of EMU with or without Britain.
Mr Willett's resignation was inevitable after a report from a Commons committee on standards and privileges itself established after the Nolan inquiry into standards in public life - challenged the veracity of his evidence and implied that he had improperly sought to influence an investigation into a fellow Tory MP. Mr Willet's swift resignation, in marked contrast to the foot dragging of other scandal ridden Tory ministers, was a welcome reminder to the public that the political system is not totally bereft of honour.
But there is unlikely to be any political kudos for Mr Major. The former paymaster is the seventeenth minister or official forced to resign from his government because of allegations about their parliamentary or private behaviour. It may confirm the view in the public mind that Mr Major's is an accident prone, deeply divided government that has run its course. On the basis of the latest opinion polls, Mr Major's task in seeking to secure a fourth Tory term looks hopeless. The latest Times poll indicates that support for the Tories is now at just 30 per cent; Labour rating, by contrast, has increased to 51 per cent. But Mr Major, as his EU colleagues will no doubt confirm, is a doughty political fighter. He is also a formidable opponent, both on the hustings and on radio and television. His best hope is that the pick up in the British economy will produce the kind of "feel good" factor which, will bring him victory. But, as he prepares for today's summit, he will know that his prospects of attending the Amsterdam European Council in June do not look good.