Six months ago it looked virtually certain that the campaign to succeed President Clinton would be fought out by the Vice President, Mr Al Gore, and the Governor of Texas, Mr George Bush; both seemed destined to win the nomination of their respective parties with little opposition. Now all has changed. Mr Gore's campaign never got into top gear and he is facing stiff opposition from Mr Bill Bradley, a former basketball star with unexceptional policies and a bland personality. Yet, Mr Bradley rises in the polls and Mr Gore falls.
The electorate is bored with Mr Gore who has been seven years in office, but taken with Mr Bradley who is new to national politics. If Mr Gore comes a bad second in the New Hampshire primary on February 1st, he will find subsequent fund-raising far more difficult and may see his campaign run into the ground.
The primary will also be critical for the Republican Party's two front-runners. Mr Bush is being challenged strongly by Senator John McCain of Arizona, with whom he differs greatly in background, personality and policies. Mr Bush is still the favourite to win the nomination largely because he has amassed campaign funding of $65 million and can survive a setback or two. But even he had to admit that a New Hampshire poll last Thursday showing him 15 points behind Mr McCain makes it clear that he has it all to do even just to put in a good showing.
Mr Bush's stature in New Hampshire has suffered through his lacklustre performance in two recent debates between the candidates. None of the candidates debated particularly well but Mr McCain came out on top decisively. Mr Bush is an effective governor of Texas but he finds it difficult to shed the image of a person who inherited success, rather than achieved it. His is the "compassionate conservativism" slogan - i.e. aiming for the centre - and he has published commendably detailed proposals but has failed dismally in tackling the public perception that he is somewhat short on brain power.
Mr McCain, a navy flyer who was captured and badly tortured in Vietnam, has much to offer a generation in search of a hero. His policies, especially on gun control, abortion, gays and the environment, are unashamedly conservative. In addition, he is deeply disliked by the Republican leadership. All of which, however, endears him to New Hampshire republicans. Mr McCain has got the back up of his party leaders because of his commitment to campaign finance reform. He has pledged to end the unrestricted flow of money into campaigns from big business and vested interests, stopping the sale of the Oval Office to the best fund-raiser. In this, Mr McCain gets Democratic Party support from Mr Bradley. Next Thursday, the two will share a platform and press their case for an overdue and popular reform on which the two front-running candidates are wholly vulnerable. Not for the first time, the New Hampshire primaries, involving a minuscule proportion of the voters, will hold the nation's attention.