After the failure of the Anglo-Irish summit last week to find a way out of the morass into which the Northern peace talks have been backed, it would have been sanguine to expect any sign of optimism at Stormont yesterday at the formal adjournment for Christmas. Mr Bruton, when he met President Clinton on Tuesday, and Mr Major in the North yesterday, reinforced the notion of drift and discord by underlining the basic difference between their two governments on the terms under which Sinn Fein will be admitted to the talks once the IRA declares a new and convincing ceasefire.
The gap is not unbridgeable, but for the next few weeks - and probably, given Mr Major's parliamentary difficulties, until after the Westminster election - it is likely to remain in place, symbolising the inertia that has settled over the attempts by the political parties in the North to reach a formula one decommissioning. That hurdle remains unjumped in spite of months of wrangling and behind-the-scenes diplomacy, and by now it is easy to see it as a test of political will rather than an issue which can be solved straightforwardly with the appropriate amount of effort by everyone concerned.
In the end, a degree of trust will be required whatever emerges, and even then there will be diehard opponents of compromise, at the extremes of republicanism and unionism, willing to sabotage the political process in order to fulfil their own gloomy prophecies of inevitable failure. There are more ways than one of wrecking the hopes of a historic settlement, and given the political immobilism that has gripped the North for over a century, perhaps it is not surprising that there is more expertise at blocking progress than looking for ways forward.
Any substantial move is unlikely until after the British election. But that does not mean that nothing can, or should, be done in the meantime. Mr Bruton was right to point out in Washington that putting the talks on hold runs the risk of resuming in a totally different political environment which may change current equations and throw up new obstacles. He was also right to stress the necessity for the IRA to declare a new ceasefire: without it, an air of unreality hangs over the debate on Sinn Fein's participation because of unionist objections to getting involved in a Dutch auction over terms. It is the single element that could do most to break the present deadlock and get Sinn Fein involved politically. Uncertainty about renewed violence, far from extracting further concessions, strengthens the forces of reaction to change.
The adjournment at Stormont offers a period of something over a month before talks begin again in earnest. It gives a chance to the political parties to review their strategies and consider the consequences of continued hardlining. Senator Mitchell and his two co-chairmen managed to end proceedings on a relatively upbeat note by indicating that they may use their prerogative to introduce a compromise proposal on decommissioning, based on "some convergence on certain issues", which may help to break the deadlock. That may be the necessary deus ex machina which will get everyone, including the IRA, off the hooks on which they are impaled. But, as already noted, political will is the vital ingredient. If it is lacking - or if it suits some of the parties to delay until after the Westminster election - then the best-intentioned and most ingenious compromise will turn to dust.