Mitchell's return will shift the public debate back to politics

Does George Mitchell walk on water? Maybe

Does George Mitchell walk on water? Maybe. Even before he says a word to the parties at Stormont next week, the senator will make an important contribution to the peace process. His arrival will shift the emphasis of public debate back to politics and to the task of implementing the Belfast Agreement.

Not a moment too soon. It was always on the cards that this would be a difficult, even violent, summer in Northern Ireland. The failure to set up a power-sharing executive in July, the unedifying scenes in the Assembly, the resignation of Seamus Mallon as deputy first minister - these all resulted in the widespread perception that the whole agreement might be unravelling.

The fact that the two governments had talked up the July deadline, even though many observers believed that it would be quite impossible for David Trimble to deliver his party at that time, added to concern about the ensuing political vacuum and what it might bring.

People looked back to last year, to the murder of the three small Quinn brothers followed by the horror of the Omagh bomb. There were fears of violent confrontation during the Orange marching season, or that dissident republicans might perpetrate an atrocity designed to wreck the peace process. Nobody, least of all myself, would wish to minimise the nasty, brutish nature of what has taken place.

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The murder of Charles Bennett, the threats and expulsion of youths from working-class areas - these are not only depressing but a cause of suffering to the families involved. The botched attempt to import arms from Florida has raised new fears about the IRA's long-term intentions.

But, but . . . It is still important to stress that this year has been better than last year, and much better than many which went before. The marching season passed off relatively peacefully. The Unionist Party and Sinn Fein have maintained contact through regular talks.

The activities of the IRA in places like Dungannon appear to have more to do with problems in local fiefdoms than any concerted move towards a return to violence. The exercise of rough justice by paramilitary groups is repulsive but those who know Northern Ireland argue that this is a problem which will be resolved only by the creation of an acceptable police force. The publication next week of Chris Patten's report on the RUC will take this debate forward.

The leaks which have already appeared have provoked instant protests from the usual sources, but more thoughtful people in both communities know there are going to be changes to the RUC. These will not include handing over control of local policing to the paramilitaries, for the very good reason that neither community wants it. I've attended a number of the public meetings organised by the Patten commission. These have been highly charged, often angry. But, over and over again, people have made it clear that they do not approve of kangaroo courts and punishment beatings. What they want is a system which offers them protection but also delivers justice, regardless of creed or class.

That will happen only in the context of a settlement. The most urgent challenge facing the politicians now is to end the sense of continuing drift in the implementation of the Belfast Agreement. This point was made very strongly by Mo Mowlam yesterday when she spoke at Carrickfergus. Tony Blair's strong support for the Secretary of State's decision on the IRA ceasefire, and his refusal to consider any further postponement of next week's review of the agreement, provide further evidence of the reassertion of the primacy of politics, rather than merely reacting to a series of crises provoked from the streets.

The events of recent weeks have made the task facing David Trimble and Gerry Adams more difficult. But it does seem that both men remain intent, despite internal difficulties, on finding a formula which will allow them "to jump together" on the formation of an executive.

Mr Adams must know that the climate of public opinion, so sympathetic to Sinn Fein in July, has changed. The revelations about the IRA's attempts to bring in arms from the United States have caused particular concern on the still thorny problem of decommissioning.

Republican sources say the deal which was on offer in July, described by Tony Blair as constituting "a seismic shift", is still on the table. But new doubts have, understandably, been raised. Sinn Fein is going to have to find some way of reassuring unionists, and the rest of us, that it is seriously committed to democratic methods and that a return to violence is not an option.

David Trimble, for this part, should recognise that the Ulster Unionist Party's refusal to enter an executive in July has caused damage to Mr Adams's authority and contributed to the difficulties of the republican leadership over the summer. It has exacerbated suspicions at grassroots level that the unionists have no intention of ever sitting down with Sinn Fein in an executive.

This in turn has led to a loss of confidence in the political process, or at least in hopes for progress under the Belfast Agreement. This is unlikely to lead to a direct breakdown of the IRA ceasefire but it has already resulted in some drift towards dissident republican groups. In the longer term, it could represent a serious threat to those in the Sinn Fein leadership who have argued most strongly for the move towards politics.

In July many moderate unionists were prepared to admit, at least privately, that the offer which Sinn Fein had made on decommissioning could be the basis for an acceptable deal. The difficulty, they argued, lay in the timing. If that is the case, there is a particular onus on them to see that there is no further delay in the days and weeks ahead. The ugly events of the summer have muddied the waters but they have not changed the hard political realities.

One of these realities, too rarely mentioned during times of political confrontation, is that the people of this island, North and South, voted overwhelmingly for the Belfast Agreement. They still believe that it represents the best opportunity for peace to be achieved in this generation.

David Trimble put it very well, in a speech to mark the anniversary of the Omagh bomb, when he said: "It is because of the suffering involved in so many places, large and small, that it was so important to achieve the agreement between the parties last year and why it is so important that everything is done to ensure that the agreement is maintained."