The Government parties have suffered a mid-term rebuff in the byelections of Kildare North and Meath that was far more comprehensive and severe than anticipated. Late last year, Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats repositioned themselves and publicly adopted a more caring, social approach with a view to reviving their electoral fortunes.
But the voters of Meath and Kildare were clearly unimpressed by the make-over and, in an extremely low turnout, they delivered results that showed a further slide on the Government's bad local election figures.
Byelections are notoriously volatile occasions that have little in common with general elections. They are invariably used to punish the government of the day for perceived inadequacies and failures. And it has been 23 years since a sitting government won such a contest. In spite of that, the precipitous drop in support for the Government parties was so extreme that Fianna Fáil, in particular, will have reason to worry. For the first time in decades, the party does not hold a seat in each and every constituency in the State.
The outcome for those parties offering to form an alternative government has been encouraging. The voting pact arrangement between Fine Gael and the Labour Party worked reasonably well. And Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny will be delighted by the poll-topping performance of Shane McEntee in Meath, where he retained the seat once held by John Bruton. The party also performed solidly in Kildare North where Independent candidate and former Labour Party councillor, Catherine Murphy, took the seat recently vacated by EU Commissioner, Charlie McCreevy.
The Labour Party leader, Pat Rabbitte, will be disappointed that Paddy McNamara failed to get ahead of the victorious Independent candidate in Kildare North. But a reinvigoration of the party's vote in Meath by Dominic Hannigan offered hope for the future. Overall, however, the results emphasised the need for the Labour Party to engage more directly with the voters if it is to become a pivotal force in the coming general election.
A similar message was delivered to the Green Party, where its vote in both constituencies was largely unchanged from that of the 2002 general election.
Sinn Féin's Joe Reilly, who took more than 12 per cent of the vote in Meath, put in an impressive performance in view of the pressure the party has been under recently in connection with IRA criminality and the murder of Robert McCartney. In spite of that, the underlying message is that Sinn Féin will only become a real force in the Dáil in the absence of the IRA.
The stage has been set for the next general election. And the likelihood of the Government parties securing a third term in office has diminished. But the main opposition parties have considerable ground to make up before they can offer a convincing alternative to put before the electorate in two years time.