HAVING CONSOLIDATED her leadership by cautious and artful compromise in her first term as German chancellor Angela Merkel is finding the going harder only months after her solid victory in September’s elections. Along with difficult choices on economic policy with her Free Democrats coalition partners, she faces a growing crisis on Germany’s role in Afghanistan. Voters and political colleagues alike complain they are unsure about her real objectives.
The previous coalition with the Social Democrats suited Mrs Merkel. Having her principal opponents locked into a partnership made it easier to pursue her favoured delayed compromises. It made for a minimalist, ill-defined political profile, sustained by a stable policy environment. Last year’s economic convulsion shattered that but gave Mrs Merkel a decisive campaign lead based on her economic management reputation. With the Free Democrats she got a mandate for economic reform based on reduced tax, some of it delivered in Thursday’s budget. But extra borrowing will make it difficult to meet those promises next year.
This has emboldened the opposition Social Democrats, competing with a stronger Left Party. Mrs Merkel’s room for manoeuvre is reduced. The crisis over Afghanistan makes it narrower still. A German-directed Nato attack on Taliban targets in September resulted in 142 casualties, including many civilians. The full details have only gradually emerged, withheld even from Mrs Merkel at the time, according to the parliamentary inquiry opening this week. Defence ministry deception about the extent of German involvement in the war has already led to the resignations of the former defence minister, the top commander and a leading official. Pressure is mounting on Mrs Merkel and the new defence minister to reveal precisely how much they knew and when.
This matters greatly because two-thirds of voters are dissatisfied with Germany’s role even if it is presented as peacekeeping rather than involvement in a war – still a taboo in political discourse. Mrs Merkel can expect little help from opposition parties facing choices between deeper Afghan involvement or gradual withdrawal
To govern is to choose, even for inveterate pragmatist, Mrs Merkel. Naturally she wants to avoid defeat in länder elections next year, which will determine the timing of further tax cuts. But the warning from finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble this week that drastic budget cuts will be needed next year foreshadows bitter political rows within and without government.