Thousands of Orangemen from across Northern Ireland were joined by their visiting brethren from Scotland, England and further afield, on Saturday, when they celebrated the 313th anniversary of the Battle of the Boyne. But the visiting marchers and their supporting bands were greatly outnumbered by those individuals and families, from both communities, who chose to absent themselves from the occasion by taking their holidays away from any possible disturbances.
In a society grappling to come to terms with the manifestations of a divided community and the need for reconciliation, the Orange Order is in decline and the middle ground is drifting away. By comparison with previous years, the 'Twelfth' parades were smaller and less contentious.
The emerging pattern of peaceful parades is evidence of a growing 'normality' in Northern Ireland society. It marks the effectiveness of the work of the Parades Commission and of tough security measures. And it represents a grudging willingness by both communities to recognise alternative traditions. There has been relatively little violence this year.
Earlier this month, the 'Tour of the North' parade in Belfast was virtually trouble-free. A subsequent peaceful march in the Springfield Road area of Belfast set the scene for a quiet Drumcree. And the tension between nationalist and loyalist communities, that invariably attends the marching season and reaches a peak on the Twelfth, appears to have dissipated harmlessly.
It would be wrong to conclude from such positive developments that Northern Ireland society has been transformed. Last Thursday night, the top three BBC news items from Belfast were concerned with racist and paramilitary attacks. Communities are still controlled and abused by paramilitary thugs and bully-boys. There has been a sharp rise in the number of racially motivated attacks, particularly in loyalist areas. Africans and Asians are frequently targeted and, last week, members of the Muslim community were forced to flee their homes. Research has shown a higher incidence of racist attacks in Northern Ireland than in Britain and people living there are more likely to be racist than sectarian.
In view of these simmering difficulties and their potential for long-term violence and bloodshed, it is depressing that politics in Northern Ireland is dominated by the struggle for the leadership of the Ulster Unionist Party. A gradual reduction in communal tensions during the marching season has not been reflected at political level. In defence of his leadership and the Belfast Agreement, Mr David Trimble appears determined to force the expulsion of Mr Jeffrey Donaldson, Mr David Burnside and the Rev Martin Smyth. They, in turn, are preparing another leadership challenge through the Ulster Unionist Council. If there is to be political progress, involving both Governments and the Belfast Agreement, there must be solid support from mainstream unionism.