Lisbon referendum debate needs more passion

Inside Politics: Our leading politicians have been scratching their heads for some time, wondering how to get people interested…

Inside Politics:Our leading politicians have been scratching their heads for some time, wondering how to get people interested in the forthcoming referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.

The real challenge facing them is how to mobilise the potentially large but lukewarm segment of the electorate broadly in favour of the European Union to defeat the smaller but more committed No voters.

In a speech to the National Forum on Europe on Thursday, the Labour leader, Eamon Gilmore, pointed the way by combining a bit of good old-fashioned political passion with a clear, coherent and finely argued statement about why he believes it is in the country's interest to vote Yes.

The Minister of State for European Affairs, Dick Roche, responded at the forum by describing the Labour leader's speech as "passionate, truthful and incisive", while a leading Fianna Fáil politician privately described it as the best speech Gilmore has made since becoming party leader.

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The positive response from his political opponents was a reflection of the impact Gilmore made on his listeners. He also received plaudits from natural allies and pro-EU groups represented at the forum, but the key aspect of his speech was that he gave decisive leadership to the Labour movement on an issue where there are potential divisions.

Of course, representatives of Sinn Féin and other groups opposed to the Lisbon Treaty did not accept his case, but the courteous and emphatic manner in which he dealt with their questions added force to his arguments.

So far the No campaign has appeared to dominate the debate, despite the heroic efforts of Roche in promoting the Yes side. The No campaign does not appear to have suffered from the Green Party's change of heart on Europe and has been taking the fight to the public in a spirited fashion for the past two months.

For a considerable period it appeared that Roche was carrying the entire weight of the Government campaign on his shoulders. For instance, a public meeting organised by the forum in Blanchardstown in Dublin on Monday night was dominated by speakers against the treaty and there was no contribution on the night from anybody representing Fianna Fáil.

That should change in the weeks ahead as the Government gets its act together in advance of the publication of the Referendum Bill and the formal naming of the date for the referendum. Fine Gael has begun its campaign and, with Labour entering the fray in a wholehearted manner, a full debate should ensue.

People on the No side tend to be more vocal when it comes to voicing views at public meetings, but the Yes side will have to take on the challenge of putting its case if the public is to be convinced. It will be interesting to see if those in favour of the treaty can muster a better presence at the forum's next public meeting in Waterford on Monday night.

The various No campaigners have made a vital contribution to the democratic process by forcing the bigger parties to address the issues and mount a proper campaign that will ensure a full debate about the treaty provisions. It is up to the bigger political groupings in favour of a Yes vote to get out and campaign with equal passion and convince people of the continued importance of remaining at the heart of the EU project.

The early opinion polls indicate the outcome is wide open because most voters don't know what the referendum is about. The Yes side has the advantage in being ahead among people who know how they are going to vote, but with over 60 per cent of people still in the undecided category, according to the last Irish Times/TNSmrbi poll, anything can happen.

The lesson of the two Nice referendums is that a majority of people are instinctively pro-EU but they have to be motivated to come out and vote. The No vote is relatively static, but it will come out; in a low poll, it has a good chance of coming out on top.

The Yes campaign will have to inspire people with renewed enthusiasm for the EU when the mere cash benefits are not as obvious as they were 20 years ago. That is why Gilmore's identification of the Labour movement's fundamental values as being a key aspect of the treaty was so important.

Blair Horan, of the Irish Congress of Trade Unions, which has yet to make a formal decision on which side to support, was prompted by Gilmore's speech to take on people such as Joe Higgins of the Socialist Party and Carol Fox of the Peace and Neutrality Alliance, who argued against the Lisbon Treaty on the basis that it promoted militarism, "The EU started and remains a peace project," Horan reminded his listeners.

If the leading figures in Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael can speak with the same conviction and deliver their voters to the polls, the Lisbon Treaty will be ratified by the Irish electorate on behalf of the whole European Union. In that event, Bertie Ahern may even be in with a real chance of being offered the job of president of the European Council.