TWO MONTHS ago this Friday the arrest of Fethi Terbil, a young human rights lawyer in the eastern Libyan city of Benghazi, prompted anti-regime protests inspired by those who had succeeded in toppling autocratic leaders in neighbouring Tunisia and Egypt. These peaceful demonstrations against Muammar Gadafy’s four decades of idiosyncratic and often brutal rule were met with horrific violence, and what began as a tentative challenge evolved into a full-blown revolt.
Such was the speed at which cities and towns across Libya’s eastern belt fell to the opposition that many believed Gadafy’s remaining time in power would be measured in days, if not weeks. It was not to be. Today the bloodiest chapter of the Arab Spring is settling into what appears to be an increasingly intractable conflict between forces loyal to Gadafy and rebel fighters, who, fired more by enthusiasm than experience, call for further external assistance to complete their revolution.
UN resolution 1973, which last month imposed a no-fly zone over Libya and authorised air strikes to protect civilians, did not allow for military action to remove Gadafy from power. As fighting sinks into stalemate, the international community is faced with an increasingly complex situation as it struggles to agree on an immediate solution while also planning for Libya’s future.
Everything hinges on how Gadafy – the man who pompously declared “I am Libya” as the uprising gained momentum – might figure in any future scenario. Turkey and the African Union have each presented peace plans for a negotiated end to the conflict but neither proposal mentions the rebels’ basic demand – that Gadafy either steps down or is removed and leaves the country. Given the violence Gadafy has unleashed over the past eight weeks, and given his track record over more than 40 years, opposition leaders understandably fear bloody retribution should he and his regime, including his sons, remain in place. In any case, the likelihood of Gadafy ever fully re-establishing his writ across rebel-held eastern Libya is slim, raising the prospect of a partitioned country, divided between east and west.
The decision by Italy, which in recent years had built strong commercial ties with Gadafy’s regime, to recognise the rebels’ national council as the sole legitimate representative of the Libyan people, was significant. With several other countries urging Gadafy to relinquish power, the hope is that continuing diplomatic efforts, combined with political and economic isolation and the ongoing military intervention, may succeed in dislodging him.
Whatever role Gadafy plays in Libya’s future, the challenges ahead for the state he shaped in his own image are daunting. As one former OPEC official put it, Gadafy is the personal embodiment of the “petroleum curse” that has long plagued oil-rich Arab nations. After 42 years of his megalomaniacal rule, Libya is devoid of any larger political order or civil society infrastructure. Behind all the revolutionary bluster and euphoria of recent weeks, Libyans struggle to describe what their country is today, much less what it might be in future.