A sharp contrast to the apathy that prevailed in the Nice referendum and the British general election was provided at the weekend when voters in Iran formed long queues in order to cast their ballots. Polling stations were, in some cases, forced to remain open five hours after official closing time in order to cope with the demand. The result was an overwhelming victory for the incumbent, President Mohammad Khatami, who won 77 per cent of the vote compared to 69 per cent in 1997. Even in the Holy City of Qom - the stronghold of clerical opposition - he received 58 per cent of the vote. In normal circumstances, such a landslide victory would give a president a strong mandate for change. This does not apply in Iran. President Khatami, as a liberal reformer in a state run on a fundamentally religious basis, faces great problems in implementing his policies. The country's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, heads a group of Islamic clerics that strongly opposes change.
Conservative views have been put at their starkest by their most outspoken ideologue, Ayatollah Mesbah-Yazdi, who made the case with characteristic bluntness: "In a democracy, people can decide to change the rules of their life through elections and parliament. In Iran no such change is possible because the rules are fixed for eternity."
In his last term as president, Mr Khatami's policy of avoiding confrontation with the religious leadership led to little progress towards reform. It is, as yet, unclear whether he will maintain his previous stance in this regard but his second victory - by a larger margin than the first - has put him in a stronger position. His greatest support comes from the Majlis (parliament) in which there is a vigorous liberalising component which will urge him to appoint a staunchly reformist cabinet when his second term begins in August.
But the powers held by Ayatollah Khamenei will be difficult to counter. He controls the police and the armed forces. He appoints the judiciary and nominates members of the Guardian Council. This council, which he dominates, can overrule decisions of the Majlis on the grounds that they are contrary to Islam's Sharia law. He also appoints the head of the state broadcasting system which holds a radio and television monopoly. The press, for long the only outlet for pro-reform voices in the media, has been subjected to censorship and the religious establishment has closed many newspapers.
Younger Iranians have begun to demonstrate their impatience with the pace of reforms and the authoritarianism of the clergy. Demonstrations throughout the country following the election victory have sent out a strong signal to the religious leaders. Ayatollah Khamenei and the Guardian Council may, therefore, be forced to grant concessions to the reformers in order to avoid a political explosion that could cost them their power base while causing largescale loss of life.