Sir, It is encouraging to see that the new British prime minister would appear to be fulfilling his election promise of placing the Northern Ireland question as high on his list of priorities as did his predecessor. His statement in the House of Commons on June 25th represents a significant development in the current peace process.
There are a number of problems, however, with the proposed methods to deal with the decommissioning of paramilitary weapons. Robert McCartney pointed to one of these in response to Mr Blair's statement. If Sinn Fein is admitted to the talks process, its likely line will resemble: "Sinn Fein is a democratic party with a democratic mandate. Sinn Fein is not the IRA. We have no weapons to hand over". It will prevaricate, fudge, delay and frustrate.
On a broader level, the most fundamental problem facing the current process is the nature of the inclusive strategy which has dominated the search for a political solution since the Hume-Adams discussions of the early 1990s. Can anyone honestly envisage the day when Gerry Adams and Ian Paisley sign their names to the same document? The probability of a middle ground emerging between John Hume and David Trimble is remote enough without requiring the acquiescence of the more extreme elements within nationalism and unionism. If representatives of the two main traditions in Northern Ireland cannot agree to who marches where and when, what chance is there to solve the zero-sum constitutional debate?
With or without Sinn Fein the current talks process is likely to be inconclusive. The excruciatingly slow pace of discussions to date does not augur well for progress.
I believe the British government has acknowledged this by signalling May 1998 as the likely conclusion of the talks process. The most probable outcome is the imposition of a settlement by the British and Irish Governments, albeit in consultation with the political parties in Northern Ireland. In this context, the Joint Framework Document may become a crucial frame of reference.
The structures of such an imposed settlement are not difficult to envisage. Tony Blair high-lighted in the Commons that there is broad agreement on the outline of the political settlement - a devolved power- sharing assembly in Northern Ireland, "sensible and significant" cross- Border arrangements, and a new, and more broadly based, Anglo-Irish Agreement.
Despite such broad agreement, the devil will be in the detail and the detail will show-up the incompatibility of nationalism and unionism. The talks process has little chance of success, but there is an alternative. It is time the two governments began to prepare for this eventuality. - Yours, etc.,
Irish Peace institute, Research Centre, University of Limerick.