Madam, - Gerald Fleming (December 23rd) presents the orthodox view of Kyoto and anthropogenic climate change. Unfortunately, he doesn't address the underlying problems with the whole process. The orthodoxy may be summarised as follows:
1. Global temperatures are rising on a timescale of decades (however, not on longer timescales).
2. Our climate models suggest that such warming effects can be explained in terms of atmospheric gases, some of which are released by humans.
I suggest that this is very flimsy evidence on which to start dismantling elements of the global economy, thereby artificially generating unemployment.
Point 1 is hardly surprising. In the same issue of The Irish Times, the inestimable Brendan McWilliams tells us of the rise in temperature in England since the mid-19th century (the "Little Ice Age"). This shows the dramatic fluctuations in temperature that are an inherent characteristic of our atmosphere. Is climate change happening? It would be astonishing if it weren't!
Regarding Point 2, the underlying causes of climate change, we know that the Sun-atmosphere system is inherently chaotic. There is no need to invoke human factors.
The simple truth is that no one knows for sure whether human activity plays a role in global climate change. As Mr Fleming mentions, the only connection between climate change and human activity is to be found in the computer models that climatologists use.
He writes: "The predictions of climate models are checked constantly against these observed facts; a model which can accurately describe what has happened in the past is likely to be a good guide to. . .the future". The problem is that these climate models have an effectively unlimited number of adjustable parameters; by tweaking the model parameters you can fit them to practically any series of historical data. This is like a machine that, with sufficient tweaking, can spit out last week's lottery numbers - big deal!
A further problem with Kyoto is the extremely problematic relationship between science and politics. In order for science to work effectively, open debate is essential; the worst thing that can happen in science is the development of consensus. This has gone badly wrong in the case of Kyoto.
Politicians have decided that climate change is caused by human activity, even though there are several alternative scientific explanations. Since politicians control most of the research funds, they decide where those resources should be applied.
As a result, sceptical scientists are being starved of resources. It is practically impossible for any climatologist who values his career to express scepticism over Kyoto.
It is a long time since I worked in meteorology, so I have nothing to fear. But I would appeal to practising climatologists, and atmospheric physicists of all hues, to retain their scientific independence and their scepticism and not to be intimidated by political correctness. - Yours, etc.,
Dr NORMAN STEWART,
Seapark,
Malahide,
Co Dublin.