IT IS impossible to ignore Enda Kenny's consistently poor showing in the opinion polls. Fine Gael's recent and spectacular resurgence at the expense of Fianna Fáil, because of the economic recession and the Government's uncertain responses, has been accompanied by a slow decline in its leader's public satisfaction rating. This dichotomy has to be a worrying trend for party supporters and Oireachtas members as they prepare for a general election and the prospect of forming a government.
Mr Kenny has done a good job in rebuilding Fine Gael, following its extremely poor showing in the 2002 general election. But he has failed to inspire confidence in his capabilities in the wider electorate. Respondents in the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll took the view that finance spokesman Richard Bruton, rather than Mr Kenny, would make a better leader in the current economic downturn. An eighteen point margin of support dividing the two men was emphatic although, within Fine Gael, backing for the two men was evenly balanced. Mr Kenny held an advantage with the youngest group of voters. But he trailed the deputy leader by a margin of four-to-one among the over-65's. Perhaps more importantly, Mr Bruton was more highly rated among supporters of possible coalition partners, Labour and the Green Party.
The disillusionment and general grumpiness displayed by the electorate also manifested itself within Fianna Fáil, where there is a hankering after the good old days when the economy was sound and Bertie Ahern was in charge. Mr Cowen has not only seen his personal satisfaction rating halve in less than six months and approval for the Government tumble dramatically but, by a margin of two to one, the electorate believes that his predecessor would fare better in the current economic downturn. That view is more pronounced within Fianna Fáil, while Dublin and middle class voters are least convinced of the superior abilities of Mr Ahern.
Cuts in services and persistent negative publicity on the medical front have so damaged Mary Harney's standing that almost two-thirds of those questioned want her removed as Minister for Health. Public opinion has become so polarised about her role in Cabinet, now that the Progressive Democrats are to be wound up, that only six per cent of respondents expressed no opinion. Those most critical were working class voters. Older people likely to be affected by changes in medical card eligibility were, paradoxically, least judgmental. Fianna Fáil supporters also tended to appreciate the difficulties she faced. But, even there, and in spite of Mr Cowen's recent expression of confidence in her performance, a majority felt Ms Harney should not remain on as Minister.
Public opinion is fickle. In the 1980s, Charles Haughey consistently under-performed Fianna Fáil in terms of public popularity and yet was elected taoiseach. And while Garret FitzGerald was personally popular, that did not always transfer to Fine Gael. What is consistent is the public's demand for strong leadership.