The election of Dr Mary Upton for the Labour Party in the Dublin South Central by-election will inevitably increase political pressure on the minority Coalition Government by emphasising its dependence on the votes of Independent TDs in the Dail. Already, arrangements are being made for the re-admittance of Ms Beverley Cooper-Flynn to the Fianna Fail parliamentary party and closer relationships are being cultivated with Mr Jackie Healy-Rae, Mr Harry Blaney, Ms Mildred Fox and Mr Tom Gildea. The Dail arithmetic (allowing for the rapprochement with Ms Cooper-Flynn) gives Fianna Fail 76 seats and the Progressive Democrats four, which leaves the Government three short of a working Dail majority.
While there is no immediate threat to the survival of the Government, as was evidenced last week when the four named Independents supported the Minister for Health and Children, Mr Cowen, in his handling of the nurses' strike, that situation could change. In particular, the Government may not find it possible to accede to the demands of Ms Fox and Mr Blaney in relation to an abortion referendum. Otherwise, as a former British Prime Minister, Harold Macmillan, remarked, "events" will dictate the direction of politics.
The Labour Party leader, Mr Ruairi Quinn, will be pleased by the performance of his newly-structured party. Dr Upton's vote exceeded the combined showing of the Labour Party and Democratic Left candidates in the 1997 general election. And it offers a prospect of two Labour Dail seats in the next general election when Dublin South Central becomes a five-seater constituency.
Sinn Fein is likely to put in a strong challenge for that extra seat on the basis of the party's rapid growth in the constituency. Its first preference share of the vote was less than 2 per cent in 1992, but this grew to almost 5 per cent by 1997 and Mr Aengus O Snodaigh pushed it up to more than 8 per cent in the by-election. Should that growth pattern persist, arising from a political settlement in Northern Ireland, the transfer of votes from other parties could make the difference. On the basis of these figure, Fianna Fail, at 30 per cent, would seem incapable of achieving its ambition of winning three out of five seats in the next general election. And Fine Gael, at 20 per cent, would only take one seat.
This is the fourth occasion since the formation of the Coalition Government that Fianna Fail has failed to win a by-election, though it has suffered a net loss of just one seat. The Labour Party's Ms Jan O'Sullivan held the late Jim Kemmy's seat in Limerick East; Mr Sean Ryan regained a seat at the expense of Fianna Fail in Dublin North; and Mr Simon Coveney of Fine Gael retained his late father's seat in Cork South Central. But too much should not be read into by-election results. Such contests tend to be dominated by local issues and influenced by "sympathy votes" and they invariably reflect badly on parties in government.
The outcome in Dublin South Central was in line with expectations. But the extent of voter apathy must be a source of considerable concern to both Government and opposition parties. Turnout in general, local and European elections has been falling steadily for years. But a participation level of 28.18 per cent represents a new low and reflects badly on the political system. Voter interest and involvement is the lifeblood of democracy. Citizens must regard themselves as stakeholders and directors in the process of government and in shaping their own future. It is an issue that demands urgent attention.