Party strategists are sharp enough to know that a single result hardly constitutes a trend, writes NOEL WHELAN
IT HAS been a volatile nine months in Irish politics and the consequence of that has been reflected in political opinion polling.
Last June, Fianna Fáil’s 42 per cent poll rating was the highest it had been in years and Brian Cowen was the most popular party leader. Since then, however, Fianna Fáil’s vote has halved, the Taoiseach’s rating has more than halved and the Government’s satisfaction rating has collapsed.
While the massive drop in Fianna Fáil’s support reflected in last November’s Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll could be explained by the electorate’s trauma in coming to terms with the scale of the new economic realities, the fact that the party’s support has dropped by a further 5 per cent in yesterday’s poll suggests that different factors may be at play.
It is now precisely because the public appreciate how bad things are economically that the Government’s poll ratings are falling so severely.
It’s not the events of recent weeks, however, which have shaped this results but the public view now of the policies pursued for the last five years. The reasons for the economic crisis are complex and many are international.
The two previous Fianna Fáil-led governments were responsible for some of the policies which have rendered Ireland’s difficulties more intense. They unwisely put or left in place too many tax reliefs which acted as an accelerant on an already overheating property market. They also drove bloated public expenditure without putting in place a sufficiently broad tax base to sustain it. In addition, the soft touch approach to banking sector regulation, while it may have been in accordance with international norms, has left our banking system even more exposed.
This opinion poll is about accountability and the public is visiting responsibility for the economic crisis on Fianna Fáil. The party’s unpopularity flows not just from the difficult measures the Government is now taking but from the fact that much of the electorate is placing blame for the mess which necessitates those measures at Fianna Fáil’s door.
Since November the crisis has come home to voters in their pay packets. In recent weeks they have been badly bitten by the income levy. Public sector workers must also brace themselves for even more savage pay cuts in March. Even more significantly, hundreds of thousands of voters have seen their neighbours or family members losing their jobs and have themselves real reason to fear for their own or their children’s employment prospects.
One must be cautious about graphing national polls over European or Dáil constituencies but, if the geographic patterns in this poll were reflected in the European elections, none of Fianna Fáil’s MEPs is assured of re-election. Fianna Fáil public representatives around the country know that if Brian Crowley’s seat isn’t regarded as a cert then no seat is secure.
Governments do not win byelections nowadays. Fianna Fáil has particularly personalised organisations in Dublin South and Dublin Central so they never had any real chance of wining either of the two byelections due to be held in June. These poll figures suggest however that the party may now come in third in one or both of these constituencies, at least on the first count.
Fianna Fáil got 32 per cent nationally in the last local elections and lost more than 80 seats on county and city councils. These elections are now shaped increasingly by national rather than local trends and the prospect of going into next June’s local elections with their party’s rating measured at just 22 per cent will terrify Fianna Fáil’s sitting and aspirant councillors.
The 2 per cent fall in Fine Gael’s poll ratings is statistically insignificant. The fact that Enda Kenny is at his lowest satisfaction rating in six years will however upset the party a little. Nonetheless, yesterday’s poll shows that the Fine Gael surge is sustained.
This is the second consecutive Irish Times/ TNS mrbi poll in which Fine Gael has polled substantially higher than Fianna Fáil and the party looks set for good election results in June.
The Labour Party is also on the rise, although it is difficult to accept that the gain is in the order of the 10 per cent measured in these polls. If Labour’s support was actually rising at such a dramatic rate, one would have expected it to be reflected in the Red C poll published two weeks ago in the Sunday Business Post which had them on just 14 per cent.
Labour’s support is rising, however, primarily it appears on the back of their leader’s performance in attacking the Government and because of public sector annoyance at the pension levy.
Labour’s improvement is most pronounced in Dublin and Munster, which means its European Parliament seat in the capital looks safe and it has a real chance of a gain in Ireland South (formerly Munster), where it has a particularly well-resourced candidate.
This polls also points to a significant improvement in both Labour’s vote and seat share in the local elections.
Dublin South is a Dáil constituency where there is usually a multiplier effect on the national trend so this poll is very good news for Senator Alex White. Labour already has a Dáil seat in Dublin Central and lacks a good candidate so is unlikely to be in contention in that byelection.
Éamon Gilmore is clearly the biggest beneficiary of this latest poll. Labour strategists are sharp enough to know however that this one poll does not represent the long hoped-for transformation in their party’s fortunes.