Timing is pivotal in politics. Peak too soon and the party loses the attention of the public; peak too late, and years of hard work are squandered. Since becoming leader of the Labour Party, Eamon Gilmore has concentrated on modernising and reforming the organisation and broadening its appeal to the public. He has done a good job, judging by a doubling in Labour’s support and his own clear lead as the most popular party leader. Now he is attempting to build on those strengths and getting the election timing right.
With polling day a distant prospect, the party’s national conference in Galway was expected to amount to a water-treading exercise. But it became more than that when Mr Gilmore challenged Fine Gael for the leadership of the next government. It wasn’t just – as in the case of Dick Spring – a demand to become a rotating taoiseach in alliance with Fine Gael. This was a rallying cry to voters to make Labour the largest party in the State.
Mr Gilmore will have surprised many of his own supporters by his ambition. Historically, Labour has made up the numbers in coalition governments and, for long, was cruelly regarded as “Fine Gael’s mudguard”.
Mr Gilmore did not even mention Fine Gael or Enda Kenny. Instead, he targeted those disillusioned voters who have alternated between red-hot anger and resignation as the impact of recession, mismanagement, unemployment and Government cutbacks undermine living standards. He offered these people a new beginning – State investment, jobs and an end to crony capitalism.
At a time when Labour’s core vote trails that of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, talk of leading the next government appears unrealistic. Last autumn, however, the party drew level with Fianna Fáil and was five points shy of Fine Gael. For the past year, it has consistently been the largest party in Dublin. With an election up to two years away, anything could happen. And Labour is trying to ensure that it will by offering candidates in all constituencies.
Broadening the party’s appeal, Mr Gilmore proposed the establishment of a constitutional convention that would conduct a fundamental review of the 1937 document. A report would be ready for the centenary of the 1916 Rising.
Earlier, conference exerted a great deal of energy in blaming bankers and the Government for a fall in living standards and job losses. It was a popular approach. But it avoided the big issue of the moment, the Croke Park deal and the controversial public services disputes. Support for a Tobin Tax on international speculative investments – which would require EU approval – was as challenging as it got.
Mr Gilmore has shown a degree of steel since his election as leader, in confronting and overcoming resistance within the party to a variety of reforms. He now faces the immensely more challenging task of convincing voters that the Labour Party has the imagination and the discipline to shape future economic and social policy.