It has been touch-and-go over the past few years whether the Russian Federation would ratify the Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change, but it now seems certain that this will happen, however belatedly, following President Putin's decision to submit it to the Duma.
Given the power he exercises over that body, the outcome may now be regarded as a fait accompli and, as soon as Russia's instrument of ratification is received by the United Nations, the protocol adopted in Japan's old imperial capital in December 1997 will finally enter into force 90 days later.
Russia's ratification has been vital since President Bush pulled the United States out of Kyoto in one of his first acts after taking office in January, 2001. Since the US accounts for more than a fifth of global greenhouse gas emissions, this was a potentially fatal blow as the protocol must be ratified not only by 55 industrialised countries, but these countries must together account for more than 55 per cent of the total emissions from all of the so-called Annexe 1 countries, including EU member states. President Putin's move, assuming it is approved by the Duma, brings the figure significantly above the 55/55 threshold.
Sustained pressure on the Kremlin by the European Union and environmental groups appears to have paid off. This decision is partly a response to EU support for Russian membership of the World Trade Organisation. It will also soften Russia's image among western liberals worried about the recent centralisation of power there. And though they would acknowledge that Kyoto will result, at best, in cutting overall emissions by less than two per cent on 1990 levels, it is at least a step in the right direction on a long road that will require much deeper cuts if there is to be any chance of averting the serious threats posed by climate change. The widespread damage and loss of life caused by a series of severe hurricanes in the Caribbean over recent weeks may be merely a foretaste of what is yet to come.
Ratification of the Kyoto Protocol also represents a real challenge to Ireland. Our greenhouse gas emissions are minuscule on a global scale, but among the highest anywhere on a per capita basis. And because of the "business-as-usual" approach adopted by the Coalition Government since 1997, Ireland's emissions are already overshooting the target level we agreed with our European Union partners by a factor of two.
In that context, the decision to drop carbon taxes must be seen as another illustration of the ostrich-like refusal by ministers to address the most important environmental problem facing humanity.