Kenny factor becomes a plus

THE LATEST Irish Times /Ipsos MRBI opinion poll will provide significant comfort to the Goverment, but there are indications …

THE LATEST Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI opinion poll will provide significant comfort to the Goverment, but there are indications that the honeymoon may be coming to an end. More than half of the electorate have expressed dissatisfaction at how it is conducting its business. Despite such a critical response, however, the Fine Gael/Labour Party Coalition still enjoys a 37 per cent satisfaction rating, compared with 4 per cent secured last February by the outgoing government.

In view of continuing economic difficulties and reductions in services, it is not surprising that lower income groups are most critical of the new Government’s performance. Dissatisfaction levels are highest in Dublin and among women, with elderly people being the least critical. Despite that, Fine Gael has consolidated its support base within the wealthiest section of society. A harbinger of future tensions within Government over policy directions is the finding that while the bulk of Fine Gael supporters are satisfied with how business is being conducted, a majority of Labour Party supporters are not.

A broadly negative view of the Government’s performance stands in contrast to the approval rating secured by Taoiseach Enda Kenny. Going into the general election, the Fine Gael leader struggled with a satisfaction rating of 37 per cent. That has now grown to 53 per cent overall and to 81 per cent within his own party, an outcome that is likely to improve his self-confidence and silence his internal critics.

Public satisfaction with the performance of Eamon Gilmore 44 per cent is up by four points, while Micheál Martin, with a disastrous general election behind him, has improved his standing by eight points to 37 per cent. Approval for Gerry Adams stands at 31 per cent and for the new Green Party leader, Eamon Ryan, at 16 per cent.

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Party support levels have remained within the limits of statistical error since the general election, with Fine Gael gaining two points, Labour dropping one, Fianna Fáil nudging slightly upwards and support for Sinn Féin and the Green Party remaining static.

A positive reappraisal of the Fianna Fáil leader’s performance by voters shows tentative signs of being echoed by an improvement in the party’s fortunes outside Dublin. Support levels now exceed 20 per cent in Leinster, Munster and Connacht/Ulster but the capital city remains a disaster zone where, following the death of Brian Lenihan, it does not have a single TD.

Support for the manner in which the Government is running the country is most pronounced among high-income earners and older people. But, with the level of voter dissatisfaction running at 55 per cent within six months of taking office, there is a strong and unpalatable message here for the Labour Party in particular.

The most critical groups consist of out-of-work single people aged between 25 and 34 years old. These are the people who were offered large-scale job creation programmes and the prospect of not having to emigrate. They are clearly losing patience over the progress that has been made.