ANALYSIS:AS THE dust began to settle after George Lee's spectacular exit from the Dáil, some Fine Gael TDs dared to hope that the former Dublin South TD may actually have done Enda Kenny a favour by bringing the leadership question to a head at this stage in the life of the 30th Dáil, writes STEPHEN COLLINS
The prompt and unanimous endorsement Kenny received from his front bench yesterday and his fighting performance in subsequent radio interviews took the leadership issue off the political agenda and put him in a stronger position, at least for the present.
“This has lanced the boil and the leadership issue has been settled once and for all. Enda will lead us into the next election,” said one Fine Gael TD who just 24 hours earlier had an open mind about changing leaders.
Another with similar views was more cautious. “Enda has turned the corner but he will have to put in a good solid performance from now on.”
Some senior party figures certainly toyed with the notion of asking Kenny to step down in favour of Richard Bruton but the deputy leader’s refusal to offer a challenge nipped any potential revolt in the bud. Party strategists must be hoping that it will also put an end to the mutterings about Kenny’s leadership that have been doing the rounds of the parliamentary party in recent weeks, following a couple of wobbles by him in media interviews.
Kenny’s decisive response to Lee’s resignation was a sharp contrast to the way he handled those media interviews. He immediately grasped the politics of the situation and never for a moment considered showing the white feather in the face of adversity.
That impressed all of his frontbench colleagues, including some who have expressed private doubts about his capacity to lead them into government at the next election. The main reason no challenge emerged was that Kenny didn’t waver for a moment. That in itself is a crucial attribute of leadership and an important component of a taoiseach’s character.
Having rallied support within the party, Kenny then gave a number of media interviews in which he strongly defended his record as Fine Gael leader and pointed to his undoubted achievement in bringing the party back from the dead in 2002 to a position in which it can realistically mount a challenge to be the biggest party in the 31st Dáil.
It was the kind of performance his backbench TDs have been longing for and, after it, most of them were adamant that the leadership issue has been sorted once and for all and that there will be no rumbles between now and the next election.
For that wish to come true, Kenny and his parliamentary party will have to act every day as if the election is going to be held in a month’s time. The leader will have to treat every media interview as a serious challenge for which he has to prepare as if he is in the throes of an election campaign.
The entire parliamentary party will also need to act with the same sense of urgency. Muttering and moaning to each other about the party leader is a surefire recipe for electoral disaster.
Fine Gael has been down this road before, on a number of occasions, and it was a primary cause of the party’s collapse in 2002.
One of the strengths of the current Fine Gael parliamentary party is that it has a considerable depth of talent. Alongside a respected deputy leader like Richard Bruton are experienced and talented politicians such as Brian Hayes, Simon Coveney and Phil Hogan, while Leo Varadkar has had a huge impact in his first Dáil term. There is also considerable talent on the backbenches, ranging from a wise head like Michael Noonan to rising stars such as Kieran O’Donnell, Lucinda Creighton and Michael Darcy.
The critical thing for all of them is to keep their cool over the next year or so and not be panicked by one bad opinion poll or one poor media performance. If a leadership crisis is triggered by every setback, the party’s 18-month lead over Fianna Fáil could evaporate very quickly. For Kenny and Fine Gael everything hinges on how they respond to Lee’s departure rather than the fact of the departure itself.
Assuming that the leadership issue was inevitably going to arise at some stage during the life of the 30th Dáil, it was certainly better from Fine Gael’s point of view that it be dealt with now, when an election is still some way off, rather than on the eve of a dissolution. Of course that assumes that the party has got the jitters out of its system.
While the future behaviour of one or two mavericks can never be anticipated, the prevailing mood among Fine Gael TDs is that, barring some major mistake by Kenny, the leadership issue has been settled for the foreseeable future.
Although George Lee was the catalyst for bringing the leadership issue to the top of the agenda, the manner of his departure was a huge help to Kenny. Almost all Fine Gael TDs recoiled from Lee’s self-indulgent performance on Tuesday and they couldn’t quite figure out what his complaint was.
“I know George’s departure is being interpreted by the media as an indictment of the political system but it looks to us inside it more like an indictment of the hurlers on the ditch who haven’t the stamina for the tough, hard and really important business of politics,” said one experienced TD.
Stephen Collins is Political Editor