IN THE old days Kremlinologists would count the number of places away from Stalin a leader appeared on a podium to divine the latest shifts in the tectonic plates of Russian politics. Today, a democratic veneer notwithstanding, the signals remain almost as obscure, not least the supposedly on-off relationship between President Dmitry Medvedev and his prime minister Vladimir Putin.
And yesterday Medvedev, at a long-awaited press conference, was in “keep ’em guessing” mode once again. The one question the 800 journalists wanted him to answer was whether he would be a candidate in March’s presidential elections. Medvedev and Putin, the mentor who steered him into the Kremlin in 2008, have suggested one of them will run again but have not said which or whether they will oppose each other.
Medvedev toyed with the press – an announcement was “close”, he said, hinting at minor disagreements with Putin, declining to speculate on replacing his prime-ministerial team but talking of new faces after 2012, and Delphicly noting: “No one comes to power forever. People who have such illusions usually end badly”.
Playing to his reformer image, he cast Putin as a conservative. “He believes that modernisation is a calm, gradual movement. But I think that we have a chance and enough forces to conduct that modernisation faster.” He insisted he was at one with Putin on key issues “but that doesn’t mean we agree on everything...”.
In truth both Medvedev and Putin are already in a virtual election campaign. The two-track approach and the ambiguity puts both in the public eye and generates electoral excitement. Both have made a series of well-orchestrated public appearances while Putin last week also announced the formation of an “All-Russia People’s Front” that he said will bring together business, trade union, women and youth leaders to run under the banner of his United Russia party in December’s parliamentary elections. Medvedev’s response was a vague warning of an “excessive concentration of power”. But he will rely on United Russia also if he runs and most believe it will only be with the approval of Putin who effectively remains Russia’s master.
As for United Russia, it remains almost certainly the only party capable of winning the election, but is increasingly unpopular. According to the Public Opinion Foundation in Moscow, the party’s approval rating has dropped to 43 per cent from 51 per cent in December, and 64 per cent in the 2007 elections.