Mr Shimon Peres's decision to bring forward the Israeli elections comes as no surprise. It is bound up with the transformation of public opinion there towards the Middle East process following the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin, the successful outcome of the Palestinian elections, and progress in the negotiations with Syria. He looks set to earn a new mandate which could allow him to bring the process to a conclusion in the course of the next parliamentary term. The Likud Party has lost credibility and seems unlikely to recover support despite its pact with smaller right wing parties.
Last week the Syrians were complaining that electoral games in Israel are holding up the peace process between the two countries, following the US Secretary of State, Mr Warren Christopher's announcement that another round of talks is to be held. Damascus, understandably, does not want to become a pawn in them, nor in the US elections to be held in November; but presumably it is not indifferent about the results.
Although Syria criticised the elections held in the West Bank and Gaza last month, their outcome, a clearcut victory for Mr Yasser Arafat, further consolidated the momentum of the peace process. Mr Arafat undertook to delete the reference to the destruction of Israel in the Palestine National Charter when agreement was reached to hold the Palestinian elections, and a meeting of the Palestine National Council has been set for April to make this decision. It seems likely that Mr Arafat will carry the day, despite opposition from Palestinian groups based in Syria, putting more wind into Mr Peres's electoral sail.
If he wins he will have a powerful mandate to pursue negotiations on a permanent settlement with the Palestinians and a peace agreement with Syria to their final conclusions. The agenda on the Palestinian side has been relatively well mapped out. It includes the status of Jerusalem, the right of refugees to return and agreement on state sovereignty for the Palestinians. Despite the secrecy of the diplomacy and the proverbial canniness of Mr Assad, a surprising amount of progress has been publicised in the talks with Syria. This includes discussion on how to normalise relations between the two countries, on defining the comprehensiveness of the peace process, on the complexities of security arrangements, even on the consequences of these talks for those between Israel and Lebanon. Syria wants a full return of territory on the Golan Heights, in return for which Israel is pressing for cast iron security guarantees.
Internationally much hangs on the success of this process, not least the Clinton administration's reputation for peacemaking.