Southern Lebanon will become a more dangerous place as Israel withdraws from the territory it has occupied there for 22 years. The Israeli prime minister, Mr Barak, has announced his country's troops will be gone at the latest by July 7th. This is a unilateral not a negotiated move, which means the security vacuum left may be filled by paramilitary groups as well as by the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (Unifil). It was mandated 22 years ago to confirm the Israeli pullout, restore international peace and security and ensure the return of the Lebanese government's authority over the area.
The warning yesterday by a senior Army officer, Brig-Gen Jim Sreenan, of how dangerous a situation this is for the UN force and the Irish troops serving in it must be taken seriously by the Government. Having served continuously and honourably in Unifil since it was set up, they could now be facing the most hazardous period of duty - at a time when the Government's military planners have been assuming they could be withdrawn for alternative peacekeeping duties in Europe.
Precisely because this is a unilateral withdrawal it is dangerous in such a volatile region. The Israeli decision is calculated to upset President Assad of Syria. He has relied on Hizbullah guerrillas to keep up pressure on Israel, using them as a lever to influence the stalled negotiations on the Golan Heights. It is not clear at all whether Israeli withdrawal, once completed, will lead to a cessation or an escalation of Hizbullah attacks; as they withdraw, however, there is no doubt that they will be attacked - and their retaliation could be lethal for the civilian population - and for under-mandated and under-resourced UN troops.
Nor is it clear whether Lebanese army troops or Unifil will take the lead in filling the vacuum left by the Israelis' departure. In any case it looks as if the withdrawal is neither as complete nor as unconditional as required by the 1978 UN resolutions, which Israel says it will adhere to. Negotiations to clarify those points are still under way with the UN Secretary General. The Lebanese government has refused the amnesty demand made this week by Gen Antoine Lahad, leader of the Israeli client militia, the 2,500 strong South Lebanon Army. He and his men face stark choices between seeking refuge in Israel, which has so far refused to offer it or disarm them, or staying put and fighting for their survival.
It would be better by far if the Israeli withdrawal could be calibrated more effectively with the Middle East peace process as a whole. But the process has stalled on the Israeli-Syrian axis, however much progress is made as between Israel and the Palestinians. Uncertainty in southern Lebanon could easily spill over into wider conflict. Much may depend on how Hizbullah reacts to the withdrawal and whether Israel chooses to respond to targets in Beirut or against Syrian targets in eastern Lebanon.
It is therefore an urgent matter to clarify what further resources are required to give Unifil the capacity to oversee this process and the extra mandate, if necessary, to allow it to carry it out. This must be organised through the United Nations Security Council and Secretary General in coming days and weeks.