Much can be resolved by the talks between Syria and Israel that have now begun in Washington. The whole Middle East region would be changed if an agreement is reached in coming months. Not only would their bilateral relations be transformed, but so would Syrian and Israeli relations with Lebanon, as peace came to that troubled country. The precedents set for Israeli-Palestinian relations and for Israel's relations with other Arab states such as Jordan would be profound and far-reaching.
Four issues are involved in the talks - final border lines, mutual security measures, when the withdrawal would be completed and the normalisation of relations between the two countries. The first issue contains the key to the others. It seems that the Israeli prime minister, Mr Barak, has accepted in principle that a full withdrawal to the boundary line in place before the 1967 Six Day War when Israel captured the Golan Heights is necessary if agreement is to be reached. It is risky undertaking, given the position taken by most Israelis, who oppose such a comprehensive territorial concession, and the reflection of their views in the cabinet and Knesset. Most of the 17,000 Israelis who live on the Golan Heights are Labour supporters who oppose swapping land for peace there. Mr Barak will have difficulty convincing them. More important will be the views of the one million strong Russian community, most of them recent immigrants to Israel, who value security supremely and who have yet to be convinced it will be served by reaching an agreement with Syria. Mr Barak believes it will not be possible to do a deal with President Assad unless the territorial issue is faced squarely. Contained in the Golan issue is the potential resolution of Israel's entanglement with Lebanon, which he has undertaken to do within the year following his election and which occupies an even greater role in Israeli public opinion. Mutual security measures would include firm Syrian guarantees to prevent Hizbullah forces from attacking northern Israel from southern Lebanon. If that was achieved an Israeli withdrawal to established international boundaries would fulfill his election promises and create a real momentum for normalisation with other Arab states.
There has always been some tension between Syria and the Palestinian leadership over which issue should be given priority. They are put into competitive and potentially creative mode by these developments. Some of the issues involved feed directly into Palestinian-Israeli relations, notably the fate of the hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon and Syria who expect that the right of return to Israel will be affirmed in the forthcoming negotiations. That remains deeply problematic for all sides. The two days of talks in Washington have been businesslike and direct, despite the symbolic refusal of the Syrian foreign minister, Mr Farouq al-Shara, to shake hands with Mr Barak. Both Mr Barak and President Assad have strong incentives to reach a settlement, as does President Clinton.