Bubbling away just under the surface of the US presidential election campaign and in the middle of the international security agenda is an issue which is bound to become more prominent in coming weeks and months: Iran's determination to continue enriching nuclear fuel for its energy programme, which many suspect is also being used to pursue a nuclear weapons programme.
Yesterday President Mohammed Khatami was optimistic about the likelihood of reaching an agreement on the matter with the European Union. "If the EU accepts our right to produce nuclear technology for peaceful purposes", he said, "we are ready to assure the world and the EU that we will not pursue nuclear weapons". He spoke two days after the Iranian parliament overwhelmingly approved a bill endorsing the country's nuclear energy programme, accompanied by cries of "Death to America" and "God is greatest" from a number of the deputies.
Analysts suggest hardliners in the regime want to show the outside world they will adopt a tougher line if too much pressure is put on Iran to abandon its nuclear programme. On Friday, Iranian and EU negotiators are to meet in Brussels to see whether they can reach an agreement sufficient to prevent the EU reporting Iran to the United Nations Security Council for breach of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Already the president of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mr Mohamed ElBaradei, has warned such a decision must be reached by the end of this month if the Security Council is not to be involved. The options for Iran are to freeze nuclear enrichment activity for a period as a confidence-building measure and then to allow a full restoration of IAEA inspections.
All concerned are aware this could become a much more important issue when the US election result becomes known. The EU initiative to resolve it by negotiation is led by France, Germany and Britain. Iran's political leadership is split between reformists and traditionalists, which explains the ups and downs of its political rhetoric on the matter; but both wings would prefer to reach a settlement, avoiding a confrontation with the Security Council and the new US leadership. The price of that is likely to be a compromise with the EU which preserves Iran's entitlement to develop nuclear energy.
Only last week the US Secretary of State, Mr Colin Powell, dismissed reports that Israel is preparing to attack Iran with implicit US support as a pre-emptive measure to destroy its nuclear capacity. That is a reminder of the potential for conflict in the Iranian nuclear issue.