The prospect of lower motor insurance premiums held out by the introduction of penalty points seems to be fading in the rear-view mirror. The insurance industry has been quick - perhaps a little too quick - to link the recent upward trends in deaths on the road to the postponement of any such cuts.
The Minister for Transport has countered that the companies have already saved "hundreds of millions of euros" since the penalty points system was introduced in November. He has pointed out that although the number of people killed on the roads in May and June is ahead of the comparable period last year, the total for the year to date is some 50 fatalities down on last year.
The alacrity with which the Irish Insurance Federation moved this week to play down expectations of premium cuts has to be viewed against the industry's hostility to the concept of linking cost savings to lower premiums. To date, only one large insurance company - Hibernian - has broken ranks and committed itself to cutting premiums for drivers who keep a clean slate.
The others, led by the IIF, have prevaricated and in the process left themselves open to accusations that they want to pocket any savings for themselves. To this end, the suggestion by Mr Brennan that the companies open their books to scrutiny is a good idea, but one that is unlikely to be taken up.
At the very least, the IIF does seem to want the best of both worlds. Its members cannot but have benefited financially from the penalty points system, yet instead of committing to share some of these benefits they have, as recently as yesterday, listed further conditions - including "sustained enforcement" - before such a move could be contemplated.
Road safety is only one element of the Government's plan - published almost a year ago - to cut insurance premiums by up to 30 per cent. A number of other reforms recommended by the Motor Insurance Advisory Board - including the establishment of the Personal Injuries Assessment Board - are either stalled or making only slow progress.
Improved road safety is estimated to have the potential to cut premiums by 10 per cent, but equally big savings are possible through legal reforms such as the PIAB, which will bring down the cost of insurance claims. Such reforms will require considerable commitment by both the Minister for Justice and the Tánaiste.
But the motorist will see none of the benefit unless the IIF commits to pass on savings. Its reluctance to act over penalty points has no doubt not been lost on the Government as it ponders further reform in this area.