"Now that India has demonstrated its capability for a weaponised nuclear programme, I hope that we as a nation shall be able to pursue with credibility and greater conviction, our long term campaign to rid the world of nuclear weapons". Thus said India's defence minister, Mr George Fernandes, in support of India's decision to carry out three nuclear explosions, two atomic and one hydrogen, under the desert of Rajasthan. His excuse is lame, his logic is twisted and his naivety is positively dangerous. In one swoop, India has undermined greatly nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation efforts, threatened the stability of south Asia and encouraged other nations to return to the insane arms races of old. This was a foolish, reckless and wholly unnecessary exercise by a weak and inexperienced government.
Of course, it was an exercise which will have gone down well with some of India's electorate, especially the extreme Hindu nationalists who support the BJP, the largest party in the coalition government. The Prime Minister, Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee, in the job only six weeks, has been criticised for being weak and indecisive. Perhaps he calculated that nuclear tests, which India has refrained from for 24 years, might improve his image. The notion, often expressed by the BJP, that only nuclear capability can truly establish India's independence and strength is a base argument but it appeals to that portion of India's electorate which is more concerned about proving virility than fighting poverty. Unfortunately, Mr Vajpayee needs all the support he can get.
Now that the damage has been done, the international community must do all it can to minimise it. In the first place India must be persuaded to develop its weapons programme no further. The international community will be at one in sharing this aim but agreement on how to achieve it is less certain. The United States, to its credit, was quick to suggest it will impose sanctions on India but they may not be comprehensive; under US law it must cut off aid. India is braced for sanctions but expects they will be minimal. Russia, a long-term ally of India, will not disappoint New Delhi, it has ruled out sanctions. Denmark has frozen its aid programme and Germany has cancelled aid talks but the European Union will have to act as one; hopefully it will take a tough line. Much will depend on Japan, the largest aid donor to India and, of course, the only country to have suffered a nuclear weapon attack.
It is possible that India intends to go no further, that the tests were little more than a feel-good exercise. India never signed the Test Ban Treaty, complaining that it prevented new countries from acquiring nuclear weapons but didn't force existing nuclear powers to disarm. Perhaps, now that India has proved its nuclear capability, it has made its point. Certainly it has increased its influence in global disarmament talks. But the tests were an irresponsible exercise which could rapidly get out of control. The Chinese government will view them with alarm, given the recent extraordinary statement by Mr Fernandes that China is India's biggest threat. Pakistan was quick to announce that it could "assemble a bomb in a week" and is likely to feel that it must prove it. India must be persuaded, in the strongest terms, that there must be no more tests and that the only way to repair the damage it has done is to sign the test ban treaty without reservations. And hopefully Pakistan can be persuaded to do likewise.