If the Belfast Agreement is to live, it will have to be revived within the few short weeks between now and May 22nd. The Secretary of State, Mr Mandelson, has made it clear that he "shares the view" of those who regard the second anniversary of the coming into effect of the Agreement as a critical date. The two governments in Dublin and London are focusing their efforts between now and then on promulgating some set of compromises which could enable Mr Mandelson to lift the suspension of the institutions, while giving the Ulster Unionists a basis for re-entering the Executive. If this does not happen, the Agreement will wither and die - and with it the best chance for several generations of securing a lasting settlement between Ireland and Britain and between nationalist and unionist.
This is the burden of responsibility which delegates to the Sinn Fein Ardfheis must carry as they assemble this weekend. If the republican organisation is willing to give David Trimble the turning room which he needs, it is possible that some sequence can be orchestrated in which the suspension of the institutions is lifted and in which the agenda set down in the Agreement can be resumed. If they do not choose to do so, the Agreement will become history and the governance of Northern Ireland will revert to direct rule from Westminster. The choice is theirs.
There is now a virtually unanimous view across all the participants that the initiative rests with the republicans. Prime ministers, party leaders, and negotiators, have contorted the English language to find a means of securing from them a commitment that the war is over for ever without any hint of surrender or humiliation. So very little, in reality, has been needed from them to preserve that which has been worked on so laboriously for so long and which was received with acclaim by the people of all of Ireland at the ballot box two years ago. If they fail to give that very little, they will indeed be judged harshly by history and by the people of the Irish nation to which they profess such attachment.
It may be that republicans have made a serious miscalculation. They have always protested that David Trimble is strong enough to sell the Agreement to the unionists if he wanted to. Would that it were so. Support for the Agreement and for Mr Trimble is ebbing steadily with new pressures being brought almost daily upon his leadership. Witness the motion demanding the retention of the RUC title and badge and the bizarre nomination decision for North Down.
The republicans should make no mistake about it; if David Trimble falls, the leader who replaces him will have one mandate only - to lead unionism back to the trenches, to put his face implacably against dialogue, to batten down the hatches and to await more propitious times. Indeed, many would say that the Agreement is already dead within the heart of unionism and that it is too late for any gesture from the republicans to make a difference.
The gap of opportunity which remains is but a matter of a few weeks. The republicans themselves know what is required of them. An organisation which has shown such a wondrous dexterity with words and abstract concepts must be well capable of presenting the assurances which can keep this process alive. There are those within the IRA/Sinn Fein axis who are inherently opposed to the political way. But there must be many more who recognise the huge gains which are there to be made from participation in the political process both North and South. Until there is a final and unconditional choice between "the party" and "the army" those gains will be largely denied to them. Making the necessary moves to secure David Trimble's leadership and the survival of the Agreement would also be the most advantageous steps they could take in their own interests.