COUNT THE number of ships using Dublin Bay and you get a fairly good impression of the overall health of the economy. Traffic there slowed dramatically in 2008 and 2009. But now, the good news is that trade is recovering at Dublin Port and the last four months have shown an improving trend. The latest figures, for March, have the volume of exports growing by 23 per cent, with imports rising by more than 7 per cent.
It is one thing for an economic think tank or financial agency to predict an economic upturn: there is usually an element of uncertainty involved. But export and import figures are the very bedrock on which public confidence can be built. So, when trade remains on an upward curve for four months, in spite of winter flooding and icy spring weather, the Government should give thanks and prepare a jobs creation programme.
Chief executive of Dublin Port Enda Connellan regards the figures as evidence of an export-led economic recovery that is likely to continue. Demand has been particularly good for pharmaceuticals, medical and IT equipment in our major export markets and this has been helped by a weaker euro and improved domestic competitiveness. Imports have also risen, indicating a slow recovery in consumer confidence. Normally, trade is strongest during the last quarter as manufacturers supply the Christmas market. Should that trend persist this year, the growth already evident in the economy will accelerate. The most important thing is to link that growth to job creation at the earliest opportunity.
The good news is not confined to sea-borne trade. The Bank of Ireland’s success in raising €500 million on international money markets was hailed as evidence that the economy has reached a point of stability and recovery. Lloyds Bank found developments here in the first quarter of the year to be “very encouraging”.
We should not, however, minimise our difficulties. The most important challenges facing the Government involve cutting unemployment and bringing public expenditure into line with income. Borrowing at current levels is unsustainable. The Croke Park agreement is a vital element in ensuring social stability, systemic reform and future economic growth. Many public servants find its terms unsatisfactory and favour industrial action as an alternative. We are at a tipping point. If the Croke Park deal is rejected, there will be further public-private sector tensions and delay in bringing hope to half a million unemployed people.