The findings of the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll will make grim reading for the Government as it contemplates the level of public outrage that surrounds the nomination of Mr Hugh O'Flaherty to the European Investment Bank. While both the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, and the Minister for Finance, Mr McCreevy, have insisted that Mr O'Flaherty's appointment will go ahead once it clears any remaining challenges in the Supreme Court from Limerick lecturer, Mr Denis Riordan, the degree of public resistance to the decision should encourage a Government rethink. The public is opposed to the appointment by a margin of almost five-to-one.
Fianna Fail ministers may choose to contemplate the political implications of their position. But the Tanaiste and leader of the Progressive Democrats, Ms Harney, can be in no doubt what the electorate expects from her. In the space of two months, her personal satisfaction rating with the electorate has dropped precipitately by about one-fifth, or 13 points, to an all-time low of 46 per cent. And the chief factor in that decline was her acquiescence in the appointment of Mr O'Flaherty. Some 83 per cent of her party's supporters believe the decision was wrong. Since the poll was commissioned, Senator Helen Keogh has said the issue was a defining factor leading to her defection to Fine Gael. The only consolation for Ms Harney is that support for her party remains unchanged at 4 per cent.
As might be expected in the circumstances - and given the on-going litany of sleaze emanating from the Flood and Moriarty tribunals - the popularity of the Government has suffered. Its satisfaction rating has dropped by 12 points to 48 per cent, the second lowest level in its lifetime. Within that framework, support for Fianna Fail has dropped six points to 45 per cent and Mr Ahern's personal satisfaction rating has declined by five points to 64 per cent. The Government's woes are likely to be compounded by the highest inflation figures in more than a decade with their knock-on effects on living standards and the Programme for Prosperity and Fairness.
It is not just Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats who are in trouble. Fine Gael - convulsed by its own internal examination and disciplinary action on planning irregularities - not only failed to gain at the Government's expense but has lost significant political ground. The party's standing has declined by four points to 18 per cent, while Mr John Bruton's personal satisfaction rating has fallen three points to 39 per cent. On the last occasion the party plumbed such depths, it generated an unsuccessful leadership challenge. The Labour Party will take comfort from the results. With the Tipperary South by-election only a week away, it stands a good chance of capitalising on the evident public dissatisfaction with both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael. The party's standing in the opinion poll has risen three points to 13 per cent and Mr Ruairi Quinn's personal popularity has edged ahead by a point to 51 per cent. In the same vein, support for Independent candidates has pushed forward to 9 per cent. And both Sinn Fein and the Green Party have gathered increased support and now stand at 5 per cent, marginally ahead of the Progressive Democrats. The uncertainty of the political situation, with its shifting allegiances, is dominated by a drift away from the two main parties. Corruption in the planning process and `stroke' politics have been comprehensively rejected.