INSIDE POLITICS:Minimum wage review is just one of dozens of horrible decisions to be made, given the scope of cuts needed, writes MARK HENNESSY
STAMINA, GARRET FitzGerald once said, is the one trait that any politician must have if he, or she, is to survive in the most brutal of trades. If anything, a new generation of politicians is slowly beginning to realise what he meant.
This year’s break has never been more badly needed, offering some respite from a political storm that began after the 2007 general election without any of the respite usual after campaigns, and has continued unabated ever since.
TDs began in earnest to desert Leinster House this week for a last round of dealings with voters in their constituencies before most collapse in a state of exhaustion for a couple of weeks in August, if they are lucky.
True, the public believe that they have gone on holidays for three months, and will never be persuaded otherwise.
And a few do swing the lead, but most will do well to get the basic fortnight before returning to a cacophony of complaints from the electorate and the struggle of holding their seats.
For most, the situation is worsened by the fact that the holiday will offer simply temporary and false relief because all know that the autumn and winter could be even grimmer than anything that has gone before.
The effect of this ever-grinding action on the soul should not be underestimated. Indeed, veterans of Leinster House would struggle to think of another year in recent decades when crankiness was so evident in its corridors with the onset of July.
With tiredness comes bad temper, mistakes, misjudgments. Fianna Fáil TDs, some of whom have been showing clear signs of disgruntlement, could be provoked into something worse if the political clouds continued to darken.
So far, the disgruntlement, or, at least, the desire to act upon it, is confined to the usual suspects, such as Cork North Central TD Noel O’Flynn, though they were desperately keen after one recent parliamentary party meeting for a new voice to represent them to the wider world. None came forward.
Until that situation changes, Brian Cowen will not face a serious revolt.
Rationally, FF TDs have an encouragement to stay in office for as long as possible. However, not everything in politics is rational.
Indeed, there are a thousand and one reasons, or excuses, for a Fianna Fáil TD to go absent without leave in the months that lie ahead, and particularly around December’s budget and especially if something is done to social welfare rates.
The bitter battle over cuts to the Rural Environment Protection Scheme (Reps) – while it did not raise a flicker of interest in urban Ireland – illustrates how TDs are coming under pressure in ways unnoticed by the wider world, which could erupt later, seemingly without warning.
Despite fears that the publication of the McCarthy report would create a fire-storm, the comparatively sober reaction offered to it in the days immediately after its publication surprised senior people in the Government.
However, McCarthy is already becoming a shorthand for cutbacks to be imposed by the Government, whether decisions have been made or not, which could bring with it unpredictable dangers over the coming months.
Already, it is being linked with the support offered this week by economist Peter Bacon at the MacGill Summer School for a cut in the minimum wage, even though McCarthy never dealt with the subject in his report.
It is a controversy that the Government could well have done without before the onset of the – hopefully for them – quiet days of August. Bacon’s call led to questions to Brian Lenihan, who said changes could happen if it was shown to be affecting jobs.
The reply was a declaration of the blindingly obvious, but it provoked another bout of the hysteria that marks so much of what passes for public debate in this country, and that has done us so much damage over recent years.
So far, small employers say the minimum wage is a problem. The unions say it is not. Forfás, asked by the Government to review the situation, says it does not know, since not enough evidence exists to make a judgment one way or the other.
In good times, the minimum wage, anecdotally, created a floor that was exceeded by employers – other, of course, than those who will always try to take advantage of those weaker than them whether regulations exist or not.
The Labour Court is currently reviewing an application by the Irish Congress of Trade Unions for a rise in the minimum threshold, though the Department of Finance in its submission two months ago proposed that it stay as it is.
It has not been increased for two years. Eventually, the Labour Court will make its recommendation – though it is not obliged to do so by any particular date. When it does, the Government will then face yet another Hobson’s choice.
It will be just one of dozens of horrible decisions to be made, given the scope of the cuts needed to put our affairs back in order and restore some credibility with the world. It is going to be a set of awful measures.
This week’s wage controversy is just one example of how the Government is exposed to events from outside.
Mortgage interest rates are another, as has been shown by the fears generated by Permanent TSB’s decision to increase its variable rates.
Following a decade of greed and exploitation by builders and landowners, and an abject failure on the part of government and local authorities to act in defence of the citizen, tens of thousands of families are above water only because of historically low interest rates.
The degree of financial literacy shown by many of them is questionable, but easy, perhaps, for those lucky enough to have bought houses before the boom to criticise. In truth, some were reckless, but most are the betrayed generation.