ANALYSIS:When America sneezes, Europe catches cold, it is said. One year ago today, Wall Street came down with a stinker . . . and Europe is still laid low
ON THE 31st floor of Lehman Brothers’ headquarters in New York on this weekend one year ago a drama was unfolding that would have devastating consequences for the world economy, national governments and the lives of millions of ordinary workers.
Richard Fuld, chief executive officer of the investment bank, who was labelled “The Gorilla” because of his aggressive management style, was frantically ringing other big Wall Street banks and the US government pleading for a bailout. Laboured with tens of billions of toxic subprime mortgage debt on its balance sheet, Lehman Brothers was under attack from short sellers and couldn’t raise the cash to stay afloat.
The US government, which had already intervened to save Bear Stearns and big mortgage firms Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, baulked at ponying up more public money. So when one by one the other Wall Street banks turned Fuld down, he had no choice but to file the biggest corporate bankruptcy in history.
The shock waves of Lehman Brothers’ $600 billion bankruptcy spread quickly and highlighted a wider malaise within the financial system. Within weeks US treasury secretary Hank Paulson was forced to perform a U-turn and propose a further $700 billion bailout fund to support the US financial sector bankrolled by US taxpayers.
The financial crisis quickly spread to Europe. On September 30th, Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan was forced to guarantee all Irish bank deposits and debts to try to prevent a run on the main Irish banks.
A few days later Iceland nationalised its entire banking system, and sought emergency funds from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Social unrest later broke out in Iceland and subsequently in Latvia, forcing both governments to resign.
But nowhere in Europe is immune to the fallout from Lehman Brothers collapse, with EU governments providing guarantees and capital injections worth €4 trillion, which is equivalent to 32 per cent of Europe’s entire economic output. Meanwhile, banks continue to be under financial stress and have responded by hoarding their cash and cutting off credit to businesses, which are shedding jobs. The International Labour Organisation says it expects 50 million jobs worldwide will be lost during 2009.
“Even if Lehman Brothers hadn’t collapsed we still had a major financial crisis brewing in the banking sector,” says Nicolas Veron, research fellow at the economics think-tank Bruegel. “This inspired an economic crisis as world trade and investment shuddered to a halt. The ripple effects are still being felt, and the long-term consequences unknown.”
The crisis has provoked plenty of calls to change the culture of banking and regulation to ensure this type of financial crisis cannot happen again.
“The international community needs to understand that the excesses of speculation and financial institutions which led to the crisis cannot resume as though nothing had happened,” said French president Nicolas Sarkozy when he unveiled plans to push for a global agreement setting mandatory caps on bankers’ bonus payments last month.
But as the green shoots of economic recovery begin to emerge in the US, Germany and France, there are real concerns among politicians that bankers are continuing to pay themselves excessive amounts.
In March the insurer AIG, which received $180 million in US taxpayers’ money, caused a scandal when it paid out $185 million in bonuses. Since then Goldman Sachs has revealed that it has set aside €11.3 billion for bonus payments this year, while Morgan Stanley, which reported a loss in the first two quarters of 2009, has also announced plans to pay out big bonuses to its staff.
“I watch what is happening with a mixture of fury and nervousness about the timidity of governments,” says John Monks, general secretary of the European Trade Union Confederation.
“It was massive irresponsibility, greed and people not adhering to proper banking principles that brought the economy to its knees . . . The bankers are getting back to business as usual with their bonuses and lobbying against regulation.”
Some European governments are taking action to curb bonuses. Pressure from the Dutch government has persuaded its banking industry to sign up to a code of conduct that will cap senior executives’ bonuses at the equivalent of one year’s salary. France has also imposed new regulations, which require no more than a third of a bonus to be paid out in the first year, with the balance payable over the next two years. The measures are intended to prevent the type of short-term risk-taking by bankers that could pose a risk to the system.
Paris and Berlin are also pressing the G20 group of leading world powers to set global standards on bankers’ bonuses. But the US and Britain oppose mandatory caps on bonuses, which means G20 leaders will only agree to “explore possible approaches or limiting variable remuneration” at the group’s meeting in Pittsburgh this month.
The global banking industry is lobbying furiously against government intervention.
Deutsche Bank chief executive Josef Ackermann warned this week “the war for talent is in full swing” and banks could not afford to lose their star performers. “The question of whether we have learned something focuses too much on the question of bonuses and leaves out other aspects,” he told bankers at a conference in Frankfurt.
But there are encouraging signs that regulation in Europe and the US is being tightened. The EU has proposed new laws to force banks to hold more capital on their balance sheets and to regulate credit ratings agencies and hedge funds. It will also unveil a proposal this month to create a new European financial supervisory system.
Similar regulatory moves are being proposed in the US, and work will continue at the G20 in Pittsburgh to co-ordinate these efforts and beef up the IMF. One big success has been the G20 effort to crack down on global tax havens, which has forced Switzerland and several other jurisdictions to amend banking secrecy laws.
But a year after Lehman Brothers’ collapse a lot of work still needs to be done, and there is little evidence that the corporate culture personified by its “gorilla” chief executive has changed. Perhaps the biggest danger for reform is a nascent global economy recovery which could rob politicians of the motivation to take on vested interests in industry.
Jamie Smyth is Europe Correspondent