ZIMBABWE'S UNEXPECTEDLY contested presidential and parliamentary elections have produced such a decisive setback for Robert Mugabe that he is having great difficulty hanging on to power, despite his authoritarian regime.
In a magnificent display of political courage and democratic choice many intimidated and impoverished voters have switched their allegiance to the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), leaving the ruling Zanu-PF party trailing badly, especially in urban areas. As yet the full results are unknown, but from leaks yesterday it looks as if there could be a runoff in the presidential contest between Mr Mugabe and MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai, ostensibly because neither secured the 51 per cent support needed for outright victory.
Such an outcome would probably represent a negotiated transition of power rather than an accurate result from last Saturday's voting. It was significant that senior sources in Mr Mugabe's Zanu-PF party confirmed Mr Tsvangirai's lead in the presidential vote. Reports of deep splits in the ruling apparatus over whether to declare a military coup, annul the vote or falsify the result indicate that those around Mr Mugabe know any of these courses could not succeed in the face of popular anger and international pressure.
Another report, although vigorously denied, yesterday even suggested he may already have decided to relinquish power. Having warned ahead of the voting that any outbreak of street protests against the results would be regarded as a coup attempt to be put down by the military, Mr Mugabe is now being outmanoeuvred by the opposition's self-discipline in the face of his increasingly obvious electoral defeat. If its sheer scale negates his attempts to manipulate or annul the result he must know he has no chance of winning a runoff.
Some suggest credit must be given to the "independent" Zimbabwe Electoral Commission for its role. Despite reports that it printed millions of extra ballot papers and that local officials may have inflated the register, its members appear to have refused to go along with any wholesale distortion of the results, at most delaying their release. By insisting that counting was carried out in voting stations instead of at national level they enabled MDC activists to document results as they were declared, making a later distortion much more difficult.
The MDC's level of activity and preparedness compared to the last elections in 2002 has also been a great surprise. Despite the dire collapse of Zimbabwe's infrastructure, 100,000 per cent inflation, gross economic mismanagement of its economy, and constant repression, the party was able to organise thousands of activists in its urban strongholds to produce a hugely increased turnout of voters for its candidates.
Voters are fed up with this disastrous regime and ready to reject it. They may yet be forced to take to the streets if their will is frustrated. International pressure, with African states in the leading role, must be kept up to insist that this inspiring democratic exercise is not subverted.