Public satisfaction with the Coalition Government has continued to rise as the economy powers ahead and the benefits of tax reductions in the December Budget feed into wage packets. The trend has been underpinned by the introduction of a national minimum wage at the beginning of the month and a continuing fall in the numbers out of work. The latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll was conducted before the public was made aware of widespread corruption involving politicians in rezoning matters in Dublin. In that regard, the statements of Mr Frank Dunlop before the Flood tribunal - and the responses of the party leaders to his allegations - may have a major impact on the public's view of politicians and of political parties.
The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, will be encouraged by his personal satisfaction rating and by the performance of the Government. Displaying a 69 per cent satisfaction rating - up three points - Mr Ahern has managed to put clear blue water between himself and last year's Sheedy affair, which was the only occasion since the formation of the Government when his rating fell below 60 per cent.
The surge of five points, to 60 per cent, in the level of public satisfaction with the Government has been driven by a change in attitude by farmers and by improved support within working-class communities. When public opinion was last canvassed, in January, farmers were picketing meat plants and the Government was being blamed for inaction. The settling of that dispute and subsequent developments have mollified the farming community. As a result, the level of Government satisfaction amongst farmers has jumped from 43 to 66 per cent and accounts for a large share of its increased support.
As Fianna Fail continues to make ground, support for the Progressive Democrats has inched ahead to four per cent. Satisfaction with Ms Mary Harney's leadership has risen three points to 59 per cent. And, in what may be a significant development, support for the coalition arrangement within the Progressive Democrats has jumped from 46 to 72 per cent. The late "bedding-in" of the Government arrangement could not have come at a better time for the Tanaiste. But that new-found cohesion will come under strain as the revelations at the Flood tribunal take effect.
The Fine Gael leader, Mr John Bruton, will be deeply disappointed by the results of the opinion poll. Not alone has the party slipped back by four points to 22 per cent - cancelling out the lift it received from disillusioned farmers in January - but his personal satisfaction rating has continued to slide. At a 42 per cent rating, he is 27 points shy of Mr Ahern; 17 points adrift of the Tanaiste and he trails the Labour Party leader, Mr Ruairi Quinn, by eight points.
There is no consolation in the poll for the Labour Party either. Party support has dropped by a further point to 10 per cent during the past three months. And Mr Quinn has suffered a similar fall in his personal satisfaction rating to 50 per cent. The Green Party has added a point to challenge the Progressive Democrats for fourth position in the political pecking order at four per cent. Support for Sinn Fein has remained unchanged at three per cent.
On the basis of these figures, it would be extremely difficult for the opposition parties to deny Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats another term in office. A rapidly growing economy and rising living standards appear to have dominated political perception to the exclusion of particular infrastructural, economic and social problems. But, as a mid-term snapshot of voters' intentions, it is open to considerable modification in the months ahead.