The Government is likely to take considerable pleasure from the findings of today's Irish Times/ MRBI opinion poll which shows its satisfaction rating to have risen powerfully since last September, reversing slippage of the past nine months and giving it a positive profile with 58 per cent of the electorate. The strong performance reflects public satisfaction with Mr Charlie McCreevy's December budget. The `feel good' factor generated by his tax-cutting and spending measures has overwhelmed negative public sentiment arising from the Liam Lawlor affair. The poll findings will put a spring in the step of TDs from Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats as they prepare for next Tuesday's resumption of the Dail. On the basis of their current public profiles, they have little reason to fear an early general election. They would stand a good chance of forming the next government should they so wish and the circumstances surrounding a dissolution of the Dail allow. In the same vein, public satisfaction with the performances of both the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, and the Tanaiste, Ms Harney, has risen sharply since their maladroit handling of the nomination of former Supreme Court judge, Mr Hugh O'Flaherty, to the European Investment Bank, last year. The Fianna Fail leader added 11 points to his satisfaction rating and Mr Ahern now leads the party leaders' beauty contest with a satisfaction rating of 66 per cent. The stock of the Progressive Democrats' leader rose by 12 points and Ms Harney's satisfaction rating now stands at 54 per cent.
While the Budget has served to revive public sentiment in favour of the Government, the electorate has been less willing to transfer allegiance to Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats. In spite of that, Fianna Fail will be pleased that the sudden surge in uncommitted voters, identified last September, has begun to drift back in its direction. And the fortunes of the Progressive Democrats also appear to be on the mend.
As they face into what may become an extended general election campaign, Fine Gael and the Labour Party have a great deal to worry about. In spite of the work of the various tribunals and the jailing of Mr Lawlor for contempt, Fine Gael has actually lost ground. The party is now floundering with a core vote of only 15 per cent, marginally above its disastrous showing of last June. The November challenge to the leadership of Mr John Bruton within the Fine Gael parliamentary party has seriously affected his public profile. For the first time, those dissatisfied with his leadership amongst the electorate are in the ascendant and the figures are likely to stoke the fires of dissent within Fine Gael. The core vote of the Labour Party has remained unchanged and public satisfaction with the party leader, Mr Ruairi Quinn has risen marginally. While Fine Gael and the Labour Party have failed to benefit directly from the pool of undecided voters, the Green Party and Sinn Fein have made moderate progress. In the aftermath of the largest ever `give-away' budget, it was to be expected that the Government would generate higher public satisfaction ratings. The opening of the new Dail session and political developments over the coming months, will test the resilience of that support.