PANIC has broken out again within the Parliamentary Labour Party. The very thought of a general election has driven members to distraction. And Dublin TDs have led the charge of denial and finger pointing.
Their erratic behaviour has added immeasurably to the pleasure of the Dail. For, ever since Labour swept into government with a huge floating vote in 1992, their opponents and critics have been waiting patiently for the tide to recede. There is a whiff of unrequited vengeance in the air.
Similarities exist between what is now happening to Labour and the trials visited upon the Progressive Democrats in 1989. Both parties made spectacular electoral advances. Both promised change. And both finally disappointed the floating vote.
Back in 1986, the Progressive Democrats were a breath of fresh air in a 2 1/2 party system of government still suffering the hangover of Civil War politics. Des O'Malley, a self declared mould breaker, placed control of the national debt at the top of the political agenda. Tax reforms advocated by the PDs influenced the policies of both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael. And they were compelling on Northern Ireland. When the voters went to the polls in 1987 they were rewarded with 14 Dail seats.
It was a spectacular achievement. But, within two years, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael had regrouped to meet the challenge; modified their policies and savaged the political credibility and standards of their challengers. The PDs discovered just how hazardous the role of a reforming party can be. By the time the 1989 general election came around they were being portrayed as no different from the main parties - just smaller, middle class and insufferably virtuous. They lost more than half their representatives and crept back to the Dail with six TDs.
Hacking the legs out from under do gooders is a well developed occupation in this country. People are inherently disposed towards the status quo and frequently resent change. But it was the promise of change to clean up politics; to end suspicions of a "golden circle", to pass an Ethics in Government Act, to tackle unemployment, to decriminalise homosexuality, to provide for divorce, to legislate for abortion information and to reform the courts system that gave the Labour Party its real impetus going in to the 1992 general election.
Dick Spring held the high moral ground in spite of the fact that it was Mr O'Malley, sharing government.
Fianna Fail, who had forced the establishment of the beef tribunal and had held inquiries into questionable semi state deals. In the event, the Labour Party increased its Dail representation from 15 to 33 seats while the number of Progressive Democrats TDs rose from six to 10.
The floating voter appeared hungry for change. But, within weeks, Dick Spring had done a deal with Albert Reynolds, dictating much of the programme for government, and Fianna Fail was back in office. No matter that Fine Gael had unwisely attempted to impose coalition terms on Labour and exclude Democratic Left from the equation, the rage of the disappointed was palpable.
The break up with Fianna Fail in 1994 has only compounded Labour's problems. At various times over the past four years Labour has angered or humiliated all of the Dail parties with the exception of the Greens. Memories of wrongs suffered live long at Leinster House. And where personal interests are concerned, they can be eternal.
In that regard, the Ethics in Government Act has seriously antagonised Oireachtas "club" members. Deputies and senators are smarting over what they regard as an invasion of privacy - the partial disclosure of their financial and commercial interests. Labour is in purdah. And it is no coincidence that Eithne Fitzgerald, the architect and promoter of the legislation, has become a prime target in the Dail; her mistakes, faults and indiscretions seized on avidly and with joy. People are getting their licks in on the preacher woman.
RIPPLES from the legislation have spread far and wide. A former Taoiseach, Liam Cosgrave, broke a silence of almost 20 years at the funeral of Gerry L'Estrange last week. He said Gerry had been an honest politician and did not need an Act of the Oireachtas to prove it. Ouch!
Fund raising controversies involving Ms Fitzgerald and Michael D. Higgins were cited this week as significant factors in the collapse of the Labour vote in the Dublin West by election. This is whistling past the graveyard stuff. The reality is that Labour's vote has been sliding since 1992.
Seven by elections have been held since then. And in all of them Labour has been either deeply disappointed or shattered by the results. The other constant has been that none of the seats was won by the parties in government.
So by elections are generally vehicles of protest. People complain about local issues and pass judgment on the political establishment. The results cannot be used as a template to predict the outcome of a general election. But they are useful straws in the wind and parties which ignore the results are foolish.
We have seen hard evidence of our emerging twin track society in Dublin West where canvassing Oireachtas members were appalled by the level of deprivation, drug -taking and attendant crime rates. Now that the by election is over, however, their concerns are already fading.
It would be a terrible mistake to forget that experience. More than half of the electorate was so alienated in Dublin West that it did not even bother to vote. And the issue that dominated was water rates. Official neglect of the poorest and most marginalised in our society was hardly touched on, other than through party promises to get tough on crime and drug taking.
There are already signs that Labour is responding to middle class concerns. Ruairi Quinn has promised to concentrate tax cuts on middle income groups next year, on the basis that he had already catered for the low paid.
BUT evidence from the blighted conurbations of Dublin and other major cities indicates a need for radical State intervention in these unemployment black spots. Otherwise, the costs of social readjustment and rehabilitation will become horrendous in future years. Labour has argued down the years that a rising economic tide does not lift all boats. To abandon that view, or to ignore its imperatives, would only add to existing public disillusionment with the Labour Party.
There is one racing certainty the Labour Party will lose seats at the next general election. The only question is how many.
96041600127