When political leaders raise expectations by encouraging and harnessing public campaigns in support of their objectives they run the risk of disappointing them if they are not achieved.
This political reality has run through Britain's presidency of the Group of Eight industrial nations, in which prime minister Tony Blair sought ambitious agreements on climate change and relief of poverty in Africa. Yesterday he acknowledged it by saying the Gleneagles summit has made real if limited progress on both counts. Much will now depend on implementing what had been agreed.
The agreements establish a platform for further progress on these and other issues. They must be seen in the context of a greatly increased public awareness flowing from the mobilisation of international opinion. Critical reactions to the summit communique are a natural part of such a political process. It is equally important that political debate and media coverage of it continue to service this process adequately. The many people who demonstrated ahead of the summit, those who went to concerts in support of the Make Poverty History campaign and the huge number who watched or heard them have added a wholly welcome and vital new dimension to international politics. The terrorist bombings in London have not deflected political leaders or activists from pursuing these objectives, nor must they be allowed to in coming months and years.
Parsing and analysing what was agreed at Gleneagles will take time and further argument. To Mr Blair's affirmation that $50 billion extra has been committed to African aid and that this will double by 2010 campaigners say little of this is genuinely new money. Similar criticisms can be made about the agreements to cancel indebtedness. On trade there is a commitment to negotiate an end to agricultural export subsidies, but no deadline is laid down. Nevertheless the subject has been placed firmly on the agenda, which is a real advance. The agreement to help train 20,000 African Union peacekeeping troops is also welcome. As Mr Blair said yesterday, it illustrates the central principle that African self-reliance is necessary if external aid is to work effectively. This applies also to the extra funding to combat HIV/Aids, malaria and TB and to train more teachers there.
On climate change there has been a modest but real advance. Mr Blair was at pains to point out yesterday that the objective was not to re-open the Kyoto Protocol debate, which remains deadlocked between the United States and other G8 states. A dialogue has now been agreed between the G8 and the major developing states which are not yet part of Kyoto. President Bush has signed a statement acknowledging human activity contributes to climate change. The subject is to remain a central part of the G8 agenda. It will be up to world opinion, scientific research and political pressure to ensure it is equally part of the international agenda beyond the narrow confines of the G8.