French politics have been enervated in recent months by competition between President Jacques Chirac and the prime minister, Mr Lionel Jospin, as speculation mounts about whether a presidential election will be held next year or in 2002. Although Mr Chirac currently is more popular in the opinion polls he lacks a coherent party base. The French centre right continues to quarrel, split between those who oppose co-operation with the extreme right National Front and those prepared to work with it in certain circumstances.
There is much popular support for a common five year term for the presidency and the parliament, instead of the existing respective seven and five year ones. It is widely but perhaps mistakenly assumed that this would put an end to the practice of political cohabitation with presidents and prime ministers coming from different parties. In fact another significant current in French politics sees a significant part of the electorate splitting their votes precisely to ensure cohabitation in the name of national unity. One way or another the decision on whether to seek a constitutional amendment allowing the vote to be held next year rests with Mr Chirac. It is assumed he would do so if he thought this would give him an advantage over Mr Jospin, whom everyone expects to be his opponent whenever the contest is held.
The political auguries for Mr Chirac are not promising, given the deep-seated divisions between centre right parties. These go back at least to the mayoral elections in February 1997 which saw the National Front gain around 15 per cent support and the election of its candidate, Mrs Catherine Megret, in the town of Vitrolles, north of Marseille. The party maintained this level of support in last year's regional assembly elections, which gave it a strategic role in the formation of several important executives, prompting splits between those who were and were not prepared to vote with them. Mr Chirac is associated with those who reject such co-operation in principle. But the leader of his party, Mr Philippe Seguin, does not agree. Over the weekend yet another row erupted in the centre right when its constituent parties split on whether to support the victorious left-wing candidate, Mrs Anne-Marie Comparini.
These persistent divisions mean that Mr Chirac cannot be sure he will benefit from the recent split in the ranks of the National Front between Mr JeanMarie Le Pen and his former deputy, Mr Bruno Megret, concerning the very tactics that have divided the centre right parties. Mr Megret argues for systematic co-operation with them through a process of normalisation that would, however, maintain the National Front's core racist policies directed against the immigrant population. Mr Le Pen prefers the visceral authoritarian populism that has kept him outside the pale of respectable politics.
So long as these divisions remain unresolved the advantage would seem to lie with Mr Jospin and his Socialist Party and makes it unlikely that Mr Chirac would risk another electoral miscalculation, like his decision to call parliamentary elections prematurely in May 1997. Mr Jospin was the beneficiary on that occasion and his frank, matter-of-fact style of leadership and governing has since greatly impressed the electorate.