France votes tomorrow on the European Union constitution after an extraordinarily intense and rancorous campaign for and against the document.
Already nine states representing some 220 million people have ratified it by parliament or referendum - the German parliament yesterday. This leaves 15 states representing some 140 million people still to do so after the French, with the Netherlands voting in a referendum next Wednesday. It is a collective endeavour involving 25 EU member states, all of which will be affected by the outcome.
The treaty establishing a constitution for Europe sets out the values of democracy, freedom, equality, tolerance, justice and solidarity on which the EU is based. It simplifies the various treaties into one document, albeit a lengthy one reflecting its intergovernmental status. New and more effective decision-making rules and structures for an enlarged EU are laid out and the relationships between its parts are clarified - the argument rests on whether they are altered. It is an imperfect compromise based on prolonged negotiations.
While the French decision will have a profound effect, it will not be a determining one on the fate of the constitution, which must be ratified by each of the member states. Nevertheless the unprecedented level of interest in France's debate, precisely because it was one of the core members of what was the EEC, shows clearly how important tomorrow's vote is for Europe. Despite the support from the leaders of major political parties, interest groups and media, opinion polls indicate the No side has the edge going into the voting.
There is a clear divide between centre-right parties whose supporters are for the constitution and centre-left ones who reject it. Far right and far left parties and groups oppose it for different reasons, with Greens marginally against.
The French campaign has pitched most employers and professionals who favour the treaty against most industrial and white-collar workers, while women and intermediate age groups are also opposed. In fact the campaign has been fought most intensely on the centre left. Splits in the Socialist Party leadership are reflected in a clear majority of 59-41 per cent opposed, according to the last poll. The issue has become bound up with competing ambitions for the party's presidential nomination. Above all the campaign has reflected fears that EU policies will reinforce economic insecurity.
President Chirac decided last year to have a referendum on the constitution. In the event he has seen the campaign revolve around his government's deep unpopularity, as French voters face an uncertain economic and political future in a larger Europe.
A No vote tomorrow would reinforce fears that the country would lose international influence and leadership. So would all the EU member-states if the constitution is not ratified.