The scale and long-term importance of the National Development Plan now in preparation by the Government can hardly be overstated. The seven-year plan, which will involve total spending of £38 billion, will have a major impact on the social and economic life of this State well into the next millennium.
The plan should give a clear indication of how the Government intends to build on our astonishing economic progress; how it plans to upgrade our creaking physical and social infrastructure and how it hopes to overcome the various bottlenecks in the economy, which could now inhibit economic progress. Critically, the National Development Plan will tell us whether the government has the kind of strategic vision that will be required to seize the opportunity presented by a period of unprecedented economic growth. In fairness, those preparing the plan in the Department of Finance and across the public service have not been helped by the lack of public debate on its contents. There is a consensus among the social partners that the plan must be big and bold. But there has been little in the way of focussed debate about the priorities that might apply.
For all that, a draft memorandum to Government on the plan, published in Thursday's editions of this newspaper, does little to suggest that the administration has seized the moment. There is scant evidence, on the basis of the memo, that the Department of Finance has broken free of its traditional parsimony towards public spending. Some £13 billion is earmarked for roads and other economic infrastructure at a time when, by most estimates, some £50 billion should be spent to bring our physical infrastructure up to EU standards. There is little evidence of any seismic shift to resolve the chronic transport crisis in Dublin and other urban centres. And the Department is cautious about the development of new urban growth centres outside Dublin. Other aspects of the memo are also disappointing. The much-vaunted "public private partnerships", which were intended to drive a new wave of infrastructural development, account for only £1.65 billion worth of projects. And, despite the supposed commitment to regional democracy, the new regional bodies remain marginalised in the process. For all that, it may be that the Government's overall strategy for the plan will be significantly adjusted before it is submitted to Brussels in October. It may be that ministers will demand a more radical approach as they pitch for greater investment in their policy areas in the coming weeks. It could be that the Tanaiste, Ms Harney, who made the case at her party conference for "thinking big" by building major new roads - rather than just the occasional by-pass - will have a greater influence on the debate. The hope must be that the final plan will bear little reality to the cautious, incremental approach suggested by the draft memorandum. The public is looking to the Government for a bold new vision which will make a real difference to their daily lives. The business community is impatient and wants decisive action to clear the economic bottlenecks. The Government must not squander this opportunity.