DYED-IN-THE-WOOL Liberal Democrats and psephologists apart, it was always likely that UK voters would not be energised by a referendum on electoral reform. And so, sadly for British politics, it is proving. A poll last week in the Guardiannewspaper showed a 16 percentage-point lead for the no-change camp in the final days of a campaign that has failed to excite the public.
At stake in the poll on May 5th is the replacement of first past the post (FPTP) by the alternative vote, or the AV electoral method, the single-seat preferential system used in Irish presidential elections which would ensure that winning candidates have at least 50 per cent support. But AV itself is very much a second-preference, acknowledged by all to be an imperfect step on the road to the Lib Dems’ No 1 preference, a proportional system like our own multiseat single transferable vote (STV).
However, when negotiating a programme for government, a referendum on AV was all that was on offer from the Tories, who promised at the same time to oppose the measure. To Lib Dems desperate to share in power, it was an unsatisfactory, pig-in-a-poke arrangement that they are now regretting. Indeed, the failure of the smaller party to hold out for a vote on STV is almost certain to contribute to AV’s defeat. Opponents can appeal to both supporters and critics of the present system.
The arguments have been less about the fairness of the imperfect competing systems and mostly about the dubious alleged political consequences of change. The danger of permanent coalition politics is the main card played by the ‘Nos’ although had AV been used over the last 30 years, the only hung parliament produced would have been last year’s. Others are likely to follow whether or not the system is changed. That is partly because voters are increasingly willing to vote tactically where their top preference candidates do not have a chance of election, a form of “DIY AV”.
Veteran Labour bruiser John Reid has stooped to flag-waving nonsense by describing AV as un-British. It's a line that will not go down well in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland where assembly elections will take place on the same day using that first cousin of AV, STV. The Lib Dems' Vince Cable has at least brought a popular touch, if dubious logic, to the debate by arguing that if first past the post had been used in Strictly Come Dancing, Anne Widdecombe would have won. Strictly, like the X Factor, uses a painfully elongated form of AV. On such arguments, hangs the British constitution.